(Paris) The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday slightly revised upwards its forecast for this year of growth in world demand for oil, which benefits from increased recourse to the detriment of gas, which has become very expensive. .
Posted at 9:24 a.m.
The increase in oil demand has been revised upwards by 380,000 barrels per day and should thus be 2.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) for the whole of this year, it indicates in his monthly report.
Global demand should thus reach 99.7 mb/d in 2022 then 101.8 mb/d in 2023, surpassing pre-COVID-19 levels.
Oil prices are down $30 from their June highs, the IEA says, due to increased supply and fears of a global economic slowdown. Gas and electricity prices jumped at the same time to new records, encouraging the switch from gas to oil in some countries.
“With several regions experiencing scorching heat waves, the latest data confirms an increase in the use of oil to generate electricity, particularly in Europe and the Middle East but also across Asia” , notes the IEA.
This fuel switching “is also taking place in European industry, including refineries,” the authors note.
The increase in oil demand for this year, however, masks “relative weaknesses in other sectors” and a slowdown in its growth, which will drop from 5.1 mb/d at the start of the year to less than 100,000 barrels. per day by the last quarter of 2022.
In a separate publication, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has, conversely, revised downwards by 0.3 mb/d its demand growth forecast for this year.
Growth in 2022 is thus expected at 3.1 mb/d, for total demand estimated at 100.03 mb/d, which remains above the levels forecast by the IEA.
The cartel raised its estimate for the first half but lowered that of the second, due to a possible “resurgence of restrictions linked to COVID-19 and current geopolitical uncertainties”.
According to the IEA, global supply reached a post-pandemic peak of 100.5 mb/d in July with the end of some maintenance operations in the North Sea, Canada and Kazakhstan.
OPEC and its allies are also marginally increasing their production. According to indirect sources cited by the cartel on Thursday, the OPEC countries increased their production in July by 162,000 barrels, to reach a total of 28.84 mb/d.
Saudi Arabia again accounted for most of this increase, followed by the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
The IEA has finally revised upwards its projections for Russia “due to the limited impact to date of US and European sanctions” due to the war in Ukraine.
“World oil supply must increase by another 1 mb/d by the end of the year,” predicts the IEA, which advises developed countries on their energy policy.
“But with supply increasingly at risk of disruption, another price rebound cannot be ruled out,” the authors conclude.