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The high temperatures and the lack of water have a strong impact on producers, who see their cereals wither. Harvest forecasts are already on the decline and some are going so far as to fear a shortage.
The drought leaves behind parched grain fields and failing harvests. For producers, as for buyers, the bill is heavy. Bakery prices, in particular, are already rising with soaring energy and raw material prices. “It has taken 20% since the start of the year and we are still waiting for an increase at the start of the school year”, emphasizes Jean-Yves Boullier, baker. He decided to cut back on his margins so that the price does not increase excessively. But in supermarkets, prices have soared, + 6% on flour and + 13% on pasta.
Rising prices for falling harvests. The figures from the Ministry of Agriculture are clear, -4% for soft wheat and -18% for corn. From there to imagine a shortage of cereals? A theory refuted by Nathan Cordier, head of market analysis at Agritel, which relies on the export power of French agriculture. “We export more than 17 million tons of wheat, 4 to 5 million tons of corn. Ultimately, the impact will be for our main customers.” But prices are likely to rise. Corn is already up 17% in the past month.