Hit hard by the impacts of the climate crisis, Quebec could face drinking water shortages in the coming decades. The expected warming will also have negative consequences for health, for infrastructure, for forestry and for biodiversity, according to what emerges from a new report published on Tuesday.
In a context of climatic upheavals, Quebec will be more vulnerable to floods, but also to periods of sharp drops in water levels, warns the “Report on regional perspectives” financed by the federal government and written mainly by experts from the consortium scientist Ouranos.
These “more severe and longer” low water levels risk “affecting the availability and quality of drinking water in Quebec. The increase in low water levels, particularly in the St. Lawrence River, could cause considerable damage given that this river is the source of drinking water supply for nearly a third of the Quebec population”.
“These changes could require adjustments to water consumption (by residents, the agricultural sector and the industrial sector), modification of pumps, plant pipes and repairs to the distribution network”, can we also read in the document, which highlights the need to implement measures to adapt to the impacts of the climate crisis.
More episodes of extreme heat
This report, which outlines the many foreseeable impacts of the climate crisis for Quebec, recalls that since 1950, the province’s average temperature has warmed by 1°C to 3°C depending on the region. However, this is only the prelude to what awaits Quebec. If no major measures to reduce greenhouse gases are taken on a global scale, “average annual temperatures in Quebec could continue to increase by 3.5°C by 2050 compared to the period 1981–2010. By 2080, these changes could reach more than 6°C”.
This generalized warming “causes and will continue to cause upheavals in the climate system, in particular by accentuating climatic extremes and by modifying the normals as well as the variability of the seasons”. For example, “increases in the duration, frequency and intensity of heat waves and hot nights” are projected.
Thus, “extreme heat episodes during the summer are expected to intensify in duration and frequency”. However, over prolonged periods, “this heat has many negative repercussions on the health of populations”. Indeed, “it promotes the formation of smog and degrades air quality, which is not always optimal in urban areas”.
What’s more, “beyond certain thresholds, these temperatures can cause health problems such as heat stroke and dehydration, and are linked to higher mortality rates”. The report recalls at the same time that “the main vulnerable groups are the elderly and younger people who already have health problems, in particular mental health, as well as people living in disadvantaged environments”.
Multiple consequences
In addition to heat-related risks, mainly in urban areas, where 80% of the population lives, the report shows that all regions of the province will suffer the repercussions of global warming. Maritime Quebec, for example, is more than ever grappling with “significant issues of coastal erosion and flooding, exacerbated by the reduction in ice cover which amplifies the impact of storms”.
On the North Shore, in the Bas-Saint-Laurent, in Gaspésie and on the Magdalen Islands, coastal erosion will cause serious headaches for the Quebec Department of Transport. The ministry has already identified no less than 173 vulnerable road segments. An “intervention program”, which could prove costly, is expected to follow over the next few years.
Quebec’s forests are also at risk of suffering from decades of global climate inaction. “Changes to the fire regime could make them the greatest threat posed by climate change to Quebec’s forests”, and therefore to the forest industry that depends on it.
The agricultural, fisheries and aquaculture sectors could see gains and losses in productivity, “emergence of new crop pests or migration of fish stocks northward due to climate change”.
In addition, natural ecosystems will be disrupted by rising temperatures. On average, favorable habitats for many plant and animal species could shift about 45 kilometers north per decade, “which is very fast”. “Some native species, notably trees and other vegetation, will not be able to keep pace with the shifting pace of their bioclimatic niches. These will have moved more than 500 km north by the end of the century,” the report reads.
“Near the northern limits, because they cannot migrate further north, certain more vulnerable animal and plant species (with small populations, a fragmented distribution, low fecundity or already suffering from a decline) will not be able to adapt to new conditions and could become candidates for extinction. »