Will the Zaporijjia region experience the same fate as Crimea? The local authorities installed by Moscow announced, Monday, August 8, the forthcoming organization of a referendum on the membership of the Ukrainian region of Zaporijjia, in the south-east of Ukraine, to the Russian Federation. While the region is occupied by Russian forces, the holding of such a referendum worries the Ukrainian authorities.
1Who is behind this referendum project?
In mid-July, the head of the civil and military administration set up in the Zaporijjia region, Evguéni Balitski, had already expressed his desire to organize a referendum from the beginning of autumn to attach the region to Russia.
At a pro-Russian event in Melitopol on Monday, the leader officially launched preparations for holding the referendum. “I signed an order for the Central Election Commission to start working on the organization of a referendum on the annexation of the Zaporizhia region to Russia”declared Yevgeny Balitsky.
2How did Ukraine react?
Volodymyr Zelensky had tried the day before, in his daily speech, to dissuade the organization of such a referendum. According to him, this vote makes any peace negotiation with Russia impossible. “If the occupiers follow the path of these pseudo-referendums, they will close off any possibility of negotiations with Ukraine and the free world, which they will certainly need at some time”said the Ukrainian president.
In this same address, Volodymyr Zelensky also tried to dissuade the population from participating. “Anyone who helps the occupiers in any way to achieve their intent will be held accountable. They will be accountable to Ukraine.”
3Is holding such a referendum against international law?
The Zaporizhia region is not part of Russian territory. Consequently, Russia cannot vote for a referendum on a territory which does not belong to it. For Anastasiya Shapochkina, lecturer in geopolitics at Sciences Po, “this ad is illegal”because “it does not come within the law of Russia, whose Constitution provides for the rules of the referendum”.
The specialist in Europe-Russia relations is also worried that Russia is trying to rig the referendum. “It is possible that Russia will bring to Zaporizhia a population that is favorable to it to vote”she explains.
4How does Russia respond to these accusations?
“It is not us who are organizing the referendum, it is the inhabitants of these regions who have such projects”Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov defended himself on Monday. “He must (Ukrainian President Zelensky) asks its citizens why many of them do not want to live in its country.” Indeed, if the local authorities put in place by Moscow say they want to organize their attachment to Russia, the Kremlin has not officially announced this objective.
However, on the spot, the local occupation authorities are carrying out an intense policy of Russification. Residents are encouraged to take Russian passports and the ruble has been introduced at the expense of the hryvnia, the Ukrainian currency. Moreover, the social protection system, schools and businesses are now under Russian control.