The CAQ is still leading the way in voting intentions two months before the Quebec election, according to the most recent probe by Léger, which also presents Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives in decline for the first time since April.
The government of François Legault sails towards October 3 in complete serenity, garnering 44% of support, according to the survey commissioned by Quebecor and carried out online from July 29 to 31 with 810 respondents. The rise of the Conservative Party of Quebec, constant for five months, seems to be running out of steam: it obtains 13% of voting intentions, down 2% since July.
“Having Éric Duhaime’s position in times of confinement is easier than when health rules are minimal and the pandemic weighs less heavily on society”, observes Philippe Dubois, professor of public and political communications. at the National School of Public Administration (ENAP).
The conservative leader managed to quickly establish himself in the political landscape thanks to a speech that was in false face with the management of the COVID-19, notes the political scientist by training. His challenge now looks twofold: he will have to “get out of his comfort zone”, that is to say go beyond a position always contrary to that of all the other parties, analyzes Mr. Dubois.
He will also have to translate the intentions of his electorate, “very cynical in the face of public and political affairs”, into “sounding and stumbling votes” on election day. “It’s a challenge to get these people to participate in the system they criticize,” said the ÉNAP professor.
Éric Duhaime, for his part, puts the most recent results into perspective. “I have enough experience to know that politics is a roller coaster. Our decline is within the margin of error,” notes the Conservative leader. This is 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
He also underlines the high number of undecided, quantified at 38% according to Léger. “The campaign has not started yet,” concludes Mr. Duhaime. If there must be movement, it is certain that it will not happen in the middle of summer when people have a beer between their legs. »
The CAQ against the rest
If the CAQ is alone at the head of the pack, the identity of its closest competitor remains unclear. The Liberal Party (PLQ) comes second in voting intentions with 18% of the vote, Québec solidaire (QS) climbs to third place with 15% of the vote and the Parti québécois (PQ) brings up the rear with 10% support. .
“Clearly in the voting intentions, there is the CAQ on one side, and, on the other, the alternative to the CAQ which remains undefined. Both QS and the PCQ seem to represent an option against the CAQ players. Even if they are at the antipodes politically, they both embody change”, notes Philippe Dubois.
Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois cut a good figure with the electorate. The 31-year-old politician was able, according to Mr. Dubois, to shed his image as a student leader to appear as “a father and a skilful, competent politician”. The campaign “could benefit him because we are going to see him more, after two years of a pandemic where the government has monopolized the spotlight”, according to the political scientist.
Ruba Ghazal, elected in solidarity in Mercier, notes that her party manages to “consolidate its growth potential”. As proof, according to her: training remains first among young people. “It will be important to get the vote out,” she says. The campaign will bring Gabriel even more into the spotlight. We are confident,” she concludes, convinced that her party remains the only one to respond to “urgent and close to the people” issues, such as the housing crisis.
The Parti Québécois has reason to rejoice, since Léger’s most recent poll indicates that it is the most popular second-choice team. “The PQ is the party with the greatest potential for growth, because it is the party that comes back as people’s second choice. His challenge is to change this second choice first at the polls,” observes Philippe Dubois.
In his opinion, “this is not the time to buy flowers for the party casket”. The training led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon still enjoys a large base of donors and supporters. “If he has a good campaign, he could make gains,” predicts Mr. Dubois.
As for the Liberals led by Dominique Anglade, they avoided a further plunge in voting intentions in the light of the latest Léger sounding. They remain far, however, from having the power of yesteryear in the Quebec political landscape, concludes Philippe Dubois.
“The realignment of political forces in Quebec was very damaging for the PQ, but it also affected the Liberals. They remain associated with an old party in people’s minds, which offers nothing different and whose positions have not always been clear. »