Countries in the European Union are preparing for a further drop in deliveries from Russia and Spain on Tuesday became the latest country to announce restrictions in this area, which are expected to apply until November 2023.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
The government of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has notably indicated that it will limit the use of air conditioning and heating in public buildings and large shopping centers by setting temperature limits.
The member countries of the European Union (EU) agreed last week on the need to reduce their consumption of natural gas by 15% until March 2023 by adopting the measures of their choice.
These restrictions must in particular make it possible to build up stocks which can be used between member countries if ever Moscow decides to cut short all supplies, particularly in winter when demand is at its peak.
Czech Industry and Trade Minister Jozef Síkela, who chairs the EU, said the deal showed member countries remain “united and united” as Russia seeks to use its energy exports as a “weapon” to divide them and limit the sanctions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine.
“Enormous pressure” on Europe
Benjamin Schmitt, a specialist in European energy security attached to Harvard University, notes that the gradual reduction of exports from the Russian oil giant Gazprom through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is exerting “enormous pressure” on Europe.
Citing unconfirmed technical problems, Gazprom executives have gradually reduced exports by 80% and are raising the possibility of a total shutdown.
Russia never presents these decisions as a political gesture. Rather, it invokes technical excuses.
Benjamin Schmitt, specialist in European energy security attached to Harvard University
The outcome of the cuts, he adds, is experienced unevenly across the continent as some European countries have taken steps in recent years to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, while others have been overdue.
Poland and Bulgaria, which were the first countries targeted by Russian energy reprisal measures, had made significant efforts in this area and consequently did not suffer too much from the drop in supply.
The situation is very different in Germany, which had decided to “strengthen its ties” with Russia rather than diversify its suppliers and is particularly weakened today.
For lack of options, Berlin notably gave its agreement, a few days ago, to the revival of a coal-fired power station which had been decommissioned, a decision described as a “necessary evil” by an environmental minister.
The bill goes up
The energy saving plan put in place should make it possible to protect first and foremost German families, who are nevertheless worried. Local media report a marked uptick in sales of firewood and electric space heaters.
Household energy bills could increase significantly. According to Agence France-Presse, a major gas supplier, RheinEnergie, pointed out on Tuesday that the bill for its customers in the Cologne region would double from 1er october.
The director of the political science department at the University of Montreal, Frédéric Mérand, notes that the risk of gas shortages and price increases are likely to increase popular pressure on the government. The industrial sector is also likely to make itself heard.
These protests could encourage the country to adopt a more timorous approach towards Russia when several EU member countries consider it already “too soft” on the subject, notes the researcher.
Any attempt to adopt new sanctions against Moscow would certainly come up against Hungary, which has close ties with the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Italy, in the process of having a government bringing together far-right formations that are conciliatory with Moscow, could also pose a problem, notes Mr. Mérand.
Temporary disadvantage
The energy deal seems to be working in favor of Russia, but things are likely to change in the long term, says the researcher, since the current pressures will accelerate the transformations required to free Europe from its gas.
Mr. Schmitt also notes that Moscow can cut gas to Europe, but can hardly redirect its production to other suppliers to dispose of its surpluses and compensate for lost income.
The oil market is more flexible, he says, since transport is done by ships that can quickly be sent elsewhere, while gas exports mainly go through fixed infrastructure requiring large investments.
Gazprom claims to have increased its gas exports to China by 60%, but it is “not possible” for this market to make up for the sums sacrificed by Moscow in an attempt to exert its “political influence” in Europe, notes Benjamin Schmitt.