If Russia completely closes the tap, the winter promises to be difficult. Stocking up, getting supplies from other countries, will not be enough. Tomorrow, our gas will come more from Norway, Algeria or Azerbaijan, the contracts have been signed or are in the process of being signed, but we will never reach the 145 billion cubic meters supplied by Russia. The development of renewable energies and liquefied natural gas will not compensate for everything. We have to play on other levers, and therefore tighten our belts.
Between August 2022 and March 2023, Brussels would like to reduce consumption by 15% across the European Union compared to the average consumption of the 27 during these same months during the period 2016-2021.
EU countries will be required to update their contingency plans by the end of September to show how they intend to achieve this goal. The recipes are known: in companies, public buildings and commercial premises, we do as at home, we lower the heating. 19°C max. We also don’t work the air conditioning too much, 25°C minimum.
Today the @EU_Commission take steps to protect Europe from a Russian gas cut ➡️ By saving gas this summer, we can save more for the winter.
Our European Gas Demand Reduction Plan shows how to do it.
— Eric Mamer (@MamerEric2) July 20, 2022
The Commission is proposing to the States to launch major information campaigns to raise awareness among individuals, to set up financial incentives to help industries switch to other fuels, preferably biomass or biomethane rather than oil, so as not to further accelerate global warming. But necessity makes law. Diesel backup generators, for example, should be able to take over power stations “for at least five days”. Finally Brussels is putting the package on nuclear: the Commission should today propose to the States which want to give up the atom to postpone the closing of their power stations.
Initially, each state could voluntarily set a target. But if Europe were faced with a sudden, complete disruption of its supplies, Brussels would like this objective to become legally binding… In exceptional circumstances, exceptional measures.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has announced an agreement with Azerbaijan to double “in a few years” EU gas imports from this former Soviet republic in the Caucasus, where she is traveling #AFP pic.twitter.com/f7Iadc6SbP
– Agence France-Presse (@afpfr) July 18, 2022
European diplomats will meet on Friday July 22 to discuss the Commission’s plan, which could be modified before its publication, with a view to approval on July 26 at a European Council of Energy Ministers. This provision is not unanimous. Countries that have little or no dependence on Russian gas are not very warm, while those that have already reduced their consumption such as Germany believe that their efforts should be taken into account.
After a ten-day shutdown for annual maintenance, gas deliveries through Russia’s Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline to Germany are expected to resume on July 21. Presumably at a level below maximum capacity. Moscow supplied 40% of the European Union’s gas before its invasion of Ukraine, but flows to Europe have since fallen below 30% of the 2016-2021 average.
Brussels’ idea is to send a strong signal of energy sobriety. Because Russia uses gas”like a weapon“against the EU, by drastically reducing its supplies, accuses the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen.
If the worst comes to pass, Europeans will have to be ready. “We must now take extraordinary and rapid measures“says the Commission, which judges that it will always be cheaper to reduce gas demand than to be hit by a disruption of supply. If Russia were to completely stop its deliveries, growth would be affected: the economy of the Union could lose 1.5% of GDP, 6% in some Eastern European countries.