PHOTO OLIVIER JEAN, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Health spending is becoming a problem.
Posted yesterday at 11:00 a.m.
All the provinces are asking for more money from the federal government as if it were the only solution to save our health care system. But can you explain to me where the colossal sums that the provinces are claiming come from?
To the best
The dispute between Ottawa and the provinces over federal health transfers has dragged on for too long, and it is far from settled.
Over the past few days, the provincial premiers have reiterated their demand: they are asking Ottawa for an additional $28 billion each year.
They are convinced that the federal government must pay a larger share of the costs of the health care system. And they are convinced, too, that he has the means.
“When we look at the Conference Board’s projections, the provinces, in the coming years, will find themselves with a deficit of 100, 200 billion dollars per year, while the federal government will find themselves with a surplus of 50 billion dollars. per year,” said Premier François Legault last Tuesday in British Columbia, during the most recent meeting of the Council of the Federation.
The forecasts he was referring to date from 2020. The Conference Board estimated at the time that the federal government’s deficit would drop from $131 billion in 2021-2022 to $14 billion in 2030-2031.
The provinces, for their part, “will see their financial situation deteriorate significantly,” noted a report that the finance ministers of the provinces and territories produced last year for the Council of the Federation. Over the same period, the provinces’ combined deficit would increase from $46 billion to $103 billion.
And if the trend continues, this deficit would reach $208 billion in 2039-2040 (while the Conference Board forecasts a federal surplus of $50 billion for that year).
Health spending is no stranger to this situation.
Provincial premiers have been repeating it for several years: health care spending is increasing (5 to 6% per year) very rapidly. And the pressure will not let up in the future, quite the contrary.
The federal government “is not faced with the same issues as the provinces, that’s basically what the provinces’ arguments are based on,” explains Jonathan Deslauriers, director general of the Center for Productivity and Prosperity at HEC Montreal.
“The best example can be found in health and social services, where the phenomenon of the aging of the population will lead to a systematic increase in the operating costs of the networks,” he adds. On the other hand, the federal government’s constitutional responsibilities do not expose it to the same pressures. Result: he can spend, and possibly draw the plogue. »
That said, the colossal sums claimed by the provinces would nonetheless come… out of your pockets! Who will pay ? At the end of the day, it will be you, whether the money comes from one level of government or the other. We must not lose sight of this when we look at the current showdown between Ottawa and the provinces, says Jonathan Deslauriers.
” The game who is at stake is therefore to determine who will bear the odious tax hike [ou, utopiquement, qui réduira ses dépenses]. It’s ridiculous because at the end of the day, users and taxpayers are held in a stranglehold by the governments they fund, governments that also refuse accountability. »