(Ottawa) If the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election in the United States proves chaotic, extremist groups could seek financial and logistical assistance in Canada. The number of asylum applications could jump. Groups established south of the border could be tempted to import this social unrest here.
Posted at 12:00 a.m.
These scenarios are among those discussed by Global Affairs Canada officials in a draft document that was prepared ahead of the November 3, 2020 election to assess “the possibility that the ballot could cause further social unrest in the United States” and “the potential influence” that extremist groups could have here.
Because these violent networks in the United States have “documented links to Canada”, and “Canadians have been and remain active in the propaganda of this extremism”, we note in this report obtained by The Press under the Access to Information Actstating that “extremist groups based in the United States have branches” here.
This is among others the case of the Proud Boys, founded by a Canadian, but a little less of the Oath Keepers, this far-right militia whose former spokesperson, Jason Van Tatenhove, appeared before the Commission of January 6 on Wednesday. . Speaking to elected officials reviewing the Capitol storming, he said the group hoped for an “armed revolution.”
PHOTO JOSEPH PREZIOSO, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE ARCHIVES
Assault on the Capitol, January 6, 2021
The January 2021 riot, which left five people dead, came at the end of what Canadian officials describe as the “campaign of uncertainty” that the Trump team orchestrated in an effort to question “the integrity of the electoral process and its potential outcome”.
We are not immune to it north of the border, they argue.
We will have to see “to what extent Canadians are vulnerable to misinformation and susceptible to the exploitation of a vulnerability”, they argue, warning that we could witness “a phenomenon of contagion [copycat actions] here in Canada, and elsewhere in the world.
A contagion in Canada?
Was the occupation of Ottawa by the “freedom convoy” the work of imitators?
PHOTO SARAH MONGEAU-BIRKETT, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Demonstration during the “freedom convoy”, last February
“There was the will to do it. The overall objective was to destabilize and bring down Justin Trudeau,” said David Morin, co-holder of the UNESCO Chair in the Prevention of Radicalization and Violent Extremism at the University of Sherbrooke.
[Lors du “convoi de la liberté”] there was still a seditious objective that somewhat resembled that pursued by those who stormed the Capitol — but in a Canadian context, with a dimension of less collective violence.
David Morin, co-holder of the UNESCO Chair in the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Extremism
While the convoy was there, the Trudeau government used one of the powers conferred on it by the use of the Emergency Measures Actthat of freezing bank accounts to turn off the tap on funding from the United States.
Ahead of the American election, the opposite was envisaged by Ottawa: “If violent extremist groups of an ideological nature disputed the results of the election for a long period, they could turn to foreigners (including Canadians) to obtain financial, ideological or other support,” the officials write.
They also noted that Canada “may experience a jump in refugee claims, or an increase in border activity following the election”, including “requests for consular assistance from Canadians who are in the United States, who could be affected by the post-election violence”.
Between 2016 and 2020, a world
Although “experts assess the risks of violence based on unlikely political motives”, officials doubted that election night could become a “trigger event”.
Elections in mature democracies like the United States do not lead to social instability or provoke large-scale violence. The 2016 election [celle de Donald Trump] is proof of this, when hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated peacefully afterwards.
Excerpt from Global Affairs Canada document
Before the Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump duel of 2016, we had also produced a prospective analysis at Global Affairs.
In their crystal ball, officials saw turbulence on the horizon.
They were, however, essentially economic in nature and did not depend on the identity of the winner – the two candidates wanted to renegotiate commercial treaties.
“For a long time, the main concern was that US protectionism threatened Canada’s economic security. What we discovered with the Trump episode, and with the rise of right-wing extremism, is major: the United States can pose a threat to our national security, ”comments David Morin.
It was not immediately possible to know whether Canadian fears materialized with respect to the elements raised in the document.
In contrast, Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino’s office said Wednesday that Canada is “not immune to the growing global threat posed by ideologically motivated violent extremism.”.
“We constantly monitor growing trends and threats around the world, including at election time, and assess their potential impact on Canada and Canadians,” it concluded.
With the collaboration of William Leclerc, The Press