Again this year, certain pressure groups are releasing more or less rigorous data on the housing situation in Quebec. We believe it is important to recall a few facts in order to have an informed discourse on the issue.
Posted at 1:00 p.m.
In a publication of June 13, the Quebec Institute of Statistics reveals that in 2019, 8.7% of the population lived below the poverty line, a decrease of 5 points compared to 2015 (13. 7%). According to Statistics Canada, the average percentage of Quebec tenants’ after-tax income spent on rent represented 25.9% of salary in 1996. This proportion rose to 21.2% in 2020 and this trend seems to be continuing. The increase in the incomes of the first Canadian quintile (the least affluent segment) has made a historic jump of 30% due to financial aid, but above all thanks to economic strength. Note that in 2021, 78.3% of the population aged 25 to 64 were employed in Quebec, which is 5% more than in 2006.
As for rents, in 2011, it cost 25% more in Canada to stay in a two-bedroom apartment compared to Quebec. In 2021, it is 33% more expensive in the rest of Canada.
The alarmist discourse therefore deserves rectification. Note that rents only increased by 3.4% over the past year in Quebec.
On the transactional level, the price of plexes has increased by approximately 370% since 2000. In comparison, the average rent has gone from $509 to $931, an 83% increase. Owners are also subject to unprecedented cost increases.
The situation in the region
Montreal has experienced a net decrease in its population of 120,000 people since 2018 (ISQ) and this trend could continue in 2022. This explains the marked increase in the vacancy rate in Montreal. Those who have left Montreal to settle in the regions come up against a limited choice of housing, but the prices are lower, causing the majority of them to spend less on housing.
Statistics compiled by the Regroupement des Comités Logement et Associations de Tenants du Québec (RCLALQ) attempt to show that there would be strong increases in rents as a percentage. These figures are fortunately not representative of reality.
The technique of the robot reading the Kijiji classifieds omits several fundamental aspects. This method distorts the portrait.
Rigorous rent increase figures exist at Statistics Canada and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). CORPIQ suggests using the figures of these independent organizations. The complexity of the issue requires credible references. There is a gap between rents occupied and those available on the market, but this is less than what reading the classifieds would suggest. For example, for the census metropolitan area of Montreal, this gap is evaluated at 10% (CMHC), which is far from the 46% detailed on page 22 of the document.
A few possible solutions to start thinking about
The situation in the regions poses challenges since demand exceeds supply. The CMHC indicates that there is a shortage of 620,000 dwellings in Quebec and that the annual production of new dwellings would have to be doubled to achieve this. This is also the observation made by Ontario in a vast study which concludes that certain irritating elements (regulations) of the market should be eliminated in order to increase supply. This question must also be asked in Quebec, in order to operationalize incentives to enhance the built heritage while accelerating construction. Also, the federal contribution should be considered for the construction of social or affordable housing that could change the situation.
The Government of Quebec should promote long-term ownership by promoting the maintenance and renovation of the housing stock. Also, the authorities should relax the regulations in order to allow owners of single-family homes, rental or commercial buildings to add dwellings or intergenerational housing models to house a greater number at a lower cost. Provincial elections are a good time to present ideas. The players in the community must unite to ensure a home for all.