“We will have to build compromises.” During his televised address, Wednesday June 22, Emmanuel Macron was clear on the method with which he intends to govern. Failing to have obtained an absolute majority in the legislative elections, the President of the Republic will indeed have to deal with his opposition – right and left – to have his reforms adopted in the National Assembly.
On its own, the presidential majority – all relative – has some 250 deputies, within the Renaissance groups (ex-La République en Marche), MoDem and Horizons. It therefore lacks 39 votes to have an absolute majority. In search of support, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne is also continuing her consultations with the leaders of the parliamentary groups.
On which opposition deputies could the executive rely? Franceinfo has tried to measure the “Macron-compatibility” potential of 111 opposition deputies who have been re-elected. Each parliamentarian is ranked according to their percentage of votes in favor of texts presented by the government during Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term.
The most frequent allies
A small group of ten deputies – mostly various right – emerges. During the previous legislature, everyone voted more than one out of three times in favor of government bills.
With more than 80% of votes in favor of the Head of State’s policy, Jean-Luc Warsmann is by far the most “Macron-compatible” elected official outside the presidential majority. This former Republican even voted confidence in the governments of Edouard Philippe and Jean Castex. No question, however, of entering the ranks of “walkers”.
“I am independent. I have my freedom. I don’t depend on anyone.”
Jean-Luc Warsmann, MP for the Ardennesat franceinfo
For his sixth term, the elected various right awaits pledges. “We must avoid what we have seen in recent years, namely bills drafted in ministries on which parliamentarians had only a few days to work”he warns.
MP Pierre Morel-À-L’Huissier, member of LR but invested by the UDI in the legislative elections, also intends to take advantage of the new political balances. “We are given the opportunity to weigh with the parliamentary majority, we are not going to deprive ourselves of it”, explains the chosen one. Over the past five years, the deputy for Lozère has voted almost half the time in favor of Emmanuel Macron’s policy.
“I will continue on the same posture, without dogmatism, but now, with perhaps a little more rigidity in my behavior.”
Pierre Morel-A-L’Huissier, MP for Lozèreat franceinfo
For their new mandate, Pierre Morel-À-L’Huissier and Jean-Luc Warsmann have chosen to sit in a new group called Libertés Indépendants, Outre-mer et Territoires (LIOT). They intend to play the majority makers. “We could constitute an interesting breeding ground for the president, but with deputies who are not docile”emphasizes Pierre Morel-À-L’Huissier.
Occasional allies
Among the re-elected opposition deputies, around twenty voted more than once in four in favor of texts presented by the government, during Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term. We find in this group some socialists and a large number of elected LR.
Deputy of the Manche, Philippe Gosselin made his own calculations. “When I take all the texts that I voted for, I arrive at 40%”corrects the elected Republican, while franceinfo only gives him 28% of votes in favor of the previous presidential majority, taking into account only the solemn ballots to which all deputies are invited for the vote. “My state of mind is that of a constructive oppositionhe explains. We’re not here to sow chaos and add fuel to the fire.”
practicing Catholic, Philippe Gosselin voted against the bioethics bill, which opened medically assisted procreation (PMA) to female couples and single women. But he recognizes possible rapprochements on other subjects, such as the economy.
“We will be able to meet on the pension reform but also on the question of health.”
Philippe Gosselin, Member of Parliament for La Mancheat franceinfo
This refusal of opposition at all costs is also shared by Olivier Faure, the first secretary of the Socialist Party. As a deputy for Seine-et-Marne, he voted one time out of four in favor of government texts. “I vote based on what I believe is in the interest of those I represent. I will continue to do so”, he told franceinfo. And to add: “It does not discharge anything and does not imply any alliance.”
Exceptional Allies
For about forty re-elected opposition deputies, the votes in favor of the texts presented by the government during the previous legislature were on the other hand much rarer. They represented less than one out of four solemn votes. This group is once again mainly composed of right-wing elected officials, but also includes socialists and elected members of the National Rally (RN).
Olivier Marleix, who has just been elected president of the group of LR deputies, only voted a little more than two out of ten times in favor of government texts between 2017 and 2022. For example, he approved the emergency law to deal with the Covid-19 epidemic in March 2020. Interviewed by The Sunday newspaperat the end of June, he warned that he did not hear “not serve as a crutch to power”. The elected representative of Eure-et-Loir did not seem determined to give a blank check to the Prime Minister.
“We are an unambiguous opposition group.”
Olivier Marleix, MP for Eure-et-Loirin “The Sunday Journal”
This position of firmness vis-à-vis the executive is also shared by Valérie Rabault, patron of the socialist group, who for example voted yes to the law for confidence in public life. Asked by franceinfo about her few votes in favor of Emmanuel Macron’s policy, the MP for Tarn-et-Garonne replied that these votes were purely “pragmatic”. She said she did not intend to change her position for this new mandate.
Conversely, the RN, now strong with a group of 89 deputies in the Assembly, is less resistant to the idea of greater cooperation with the government. “We are not going to be in a systematic opposition”announces Bruno Bilde.
“If a text that suits us needs our voices, we will not hesitate.”
Bruno Bilde, MP for Pas-de-Calais
The far-right elected official certainly voted for the first part of measures against Covid-19, but against the next, which he considered draconian. “The parliamentary debate did not exist until now. Our amendments were all rejected without motivation with a form of sufficiency and arrogance”, regrets the far-right elected official. But the absence of an absolute majority changes the situation.
The irreconcilables
For around twenty opposition deputies finally re-elected, voting in favor of texts presented by the government was extremely rare during the previous legislature. These parliamentarians – members of the Communist Party and La France insoumise by an overwhelming majority – voted less than one in ten times for majority bills. Their quasi-systematic opposition may even have been obstructive, as in February 2020, when “rebellious” and communist deputies tabled tens of thousands of amendments on pension reform.
“We were in a frontal opposition by conviction”, explains Ugo Bernalicis, deputy of La France insoumise, re-elected in Pas-de-Calais. And carry on : “We are not going to change our political vision.”
“We were all the more in a frontal opposition that there was no possible discussion. But here, the message that is sent to us is: ‘Move on, there is nothing to see’. “
Ugo Bernalicis, MP for the Northat franceinfo
Same line of conduct from Elsa Faucillon, the communist deputy for Hauts-de-Seine, who wants to be in a “resolute opposition”. She certainly voted for the bioethics law, but only because she was also fighting this fight. “The Nupes campaigned in opposition to the policy of Emmnanuel Macron. And this opposition will not change on anything that will be in the same line as the policy pursued by the president in recent years”, summarizes the chosen one. However, Elsa Faucillon hopes “that the parliamentary initiative of the oppositions be greater”given the absence of an absolute majority of the Macronists.
Methodology :
Each deputy’s score corresponds to his percentage of votes in favor of the bills presented by the government during Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term. Only the results of the so-called “solemn” public ballots having concerned bills as a whole have been retained. Almost all the deputies are present on these occasions, contrary to the other public polls, known as “ordinary”. In total, the corpus of results studied includes 86 solemn ballots which stretch from July 13, 2017 to January 4, 2022.
Two deputies are an exception: Aurélien Taché and Hubert Julien-Laferrière, who left the LREM group during their mandate. For these two elected officials, only the solemn ballots after their departure from LREM, in May 2020, were taken into account.
A dozen deputies were also dismissed because they did not exercise their mandate during the entire legislature. They are Jean-Louis Thiériot (LR), Nicolas Meizonnet (RN), Claudia Rouaux (PS), Nathalie Serre (LR), Philippe Naillet (PS), Isabelle Santiago (PS), Gérard Leseul (PS), Anne -Laure Blin (LR), Chantal Jourdan (PS) and Jean-Luc Bourgeaux (LR). They were not MPs for at least 10 of the 86 polls studied (ie more than 10%).