why the health situation is likely to deteriorate in France in the coming weeks

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The end of the French exception? France has not yet experienced an epidemic rebound of Covid-19 similar to that in Germany, Austria or the Netherlands. But faced with a possible deterioration in the health situation linked to a 5th wave, the government spokesman, Gabriel Attal, did not completely rule out the possibility of a reconfinement on Saturday evening on France 2. “IYou should never exclude anything on principle “, he said, before adding: “But I don’t want to panic people, there is absolutely no question of re-containment” for the moment. For what reasons could the situation deteriorate in the coming weeks? Franceinfo provides food for thought.

The epidemic indicators are on the rise

The latest weekly epidemiological bulletin from the Public Health France agency, Thursday, November 11, sounds like a warning. The incidence rate (number of new cases over one week per 100,000 inhabitants) is increasing in all age groups and “In every region”, she notes.

In places, the jump in this indicator is particularly marked: it “reached 131 per 100,000 inhabitants in Corsica (+ 46%), 108 in Pays de la Loire (+ 29%) and 106 in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (+ 36%) “, she specifies. As of November 10, the national incidence rate was approaching 100, twice the only alert, as shown in this infographic.

Less marked than that of contaminations, the hospitalization curve is also on the rise over a sliding week, with 314 hospitalizations on November 13. Combined with the contamination figure, this second indicator is also a warning signal.

“The reproduction rate of the virus is at 1.2, which means that the number of new patients is doubling every 15 to 20 days”, alert in The Parisian Professor of Medicine William Dab, former Director General of Health. This situation is all the more worrying as the seasonal flu epidemic could soon hit the country, already strongly affected by that of bronchiolitis.

Vaccination coverage remains to be improved

Compared to its German neighbor for example, where 67% of the eligible population has received the required doses, the vaccination rate in France is high, with 75% of the population considered to be fully vaccinated, according to figures from Public Health France. Nevertheless, there remains a part of the population which is still not, including among the most vulnerable. This is the case for more than 10% of those aged 75 and over, as shown in this infographic from the CovidTracker site published using data from Public Health France. However, this is precisely the age group most at risk of severe form.

The vaccination rate by age group on the CovidTracker site, based on data from Public Health France. (COVIDTRACKER)

Another weak point, according to the government: less than half of the 7.7 million people eligible for a booster dose had received it by November 7, less than expected. To accelerate the movement, Emmanuel Macron announced, on November 9, that those over 65 who had not performed this booster dose six months and five weeks after their second dose, their health pass will be deactivated from December 15. This announcement had some effectiveness, since the following days, the bar of 4 million injected booster doses was crossed, said spokesman Gabriel Attal on November 12. THEThe immune defenses of vaccinated people indeed decline over time. This is why part of the elderly population is at risk of hospitalization, even if they are vaccinated. Hence the usefulness of the booster dose, which enhances vaccine efficacy.

Should vaccination be extended to the youngest? US health authorities have approved the administration of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for 5-11 year olds, which began in early November. Israel did the same on Wednesday, November 10. In France, the government is awaiting the opinion of the European Medicines Agency, which is due to vote on the subject in December. For the epidemiologist and researcher at the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health Pascal Crépey, even if “oIt might be wrong not to give the possibility “ to vaccinate the youngest, it is already too late to implement this vaccination in the event that this is envisaged. “If we open it now, we would not get out of this vaccination of the youngest before the end of winter, at a time when it would no longer be so useful as that, since we are facing a winter wave.“, he declared on franceinfo on Sunday November 14th.

Barrier gestures, including wearing a mask and ventilating, have been relaxed

Last black point: the relaxation of barrier gestures, and insufficient ventilation of enclosed spaces. In September, Emmanuel Macron had indicated his desire to ease health restrictions, and the government announced the end of wearing masks for primary school students in the departments least affected by the epidemic. The ongoing rebound has forced the government to tighten the screw. Upon returning from the All Saints holidays, students from departments where the incidence rate is greater than 50 had to put on the mask. From Monday, November 15, it will be compulsory again throughout France.

With the approach of winter, the problem of ventilating enclosed spaces also arises more acutely. Opening the windows is one of the fundamental barrier gestures, but little respected and above all subject to no obligation, underlined Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and professor of public health at the University of Geneva, in the program “C dans l’air” on France 5 on October 23. “Throughout Europe, the ventilation of confined spaces has been neglected a lot. In fact, this virus is practically transmitted only in confined, crowded spaces, where there are many people, poorly ventilated and in which several people pass. hours: classrooms, university lecture halls, open space for companies, canteens, restaurants, public transport“. Places at “very high risk of contamination where it is necessary to invest much more so that the air that we breathe there has the least possible risk of having coronavirus”, he hammered.

An accumulation of lapses and neglect that could end up costing France dearly in the face of this 5th epidemic wave, believes William Dab. “If we do not change anything, we will end up with 30,000 to 40,000 cases by December 15”, calculate theformer Director General of Health.


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