Just over four months to the day after Russia invaded Ukraine, NATO member countries will meet this week in Spain for a summit that will undoubtedly be dominated by this war which, from the opinion of the secretary general of the alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, could stretch for “years”. The Ukrainians are asking for more help to stand up to the Russians, especially sending arms as their reserves are running low. Sweden and Finland hope to see their membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization confirmed, they who fear an escalation of the conflict and are already preparing their population for interference from Russia.
The Russian army did not take control of Ukraine as quickly as some predicted, when it began its offensive on February 24. But it would be a mistake to believe that the threat has therefore diminished, insist in an interview with the To have to the ambassadors of Sweden, Finland and the expert in international and military affairs David Perry.
“We tend to overestimate the negative impact that the first two months of the war had on Russia and to underestimate the endurance of its army”, analyzes Mr. Perry, president of the Canadian Institute of Business world. “The war between Russia and Ukraine will not end anytime soon. And it seems clear that Russia’s goal is to drag it out, as it puts enormous pressure on international energy markets, commodity markets and the global food supply chain. The longer these crises drag on, the greater the risk that the common Western and European front will crumble, observes Mr. Perry.
“I hope the NATO summit will be one of unity, which will show Russia that the alliance is stronger than ever and that Russia has failed to divide the West and the member countries NATO,” Sweden’s Ambassador to Canada, Urban Ahlin, said on the phone last week.
Canadian armor claimed
Ukraine is holding its own against Russian forces, which are more numerous and better armed. Pounded by the Russians, the country is beginning to lack artillery for its equipment dating from the Soviet era. This makes the supply of arms and equipment to NATO countries even more urgent, notes David Perry.
Canada has run out of reserves, after sending defensive and lethal equipment. The Ukrainian ambassador to Canada, Yulia Kovaliv, demanded in Canada, in a Senate committee in early June, drones, artillery, but also light armored vehicles. The government has already delivered eight of these armored vehicles and could now offer more, according to Mr. Perry.
Secretary General Stoltenberg recently said he hoped for a “comprehensive aid plan” for Ukraine at the end of the summit to be held in Madrid on Wednesday and Thursday, and for member countries to further help Ukraine move from a military arsenal from the Soviet era to modern equipment that is interoperable with that of NATO. David Perry predicts that the alliance could also increase the number of troops in Eastern Europe, “to have a larger and permanent presence”.
The government of Justin Trudeau did not want to assume the announcements he could make at the end of the summit. “Generally, there are always calls for countries to do more. And usually, we respond present, ”noted a government source, however.
Sweden and Finland
NATO could also emerge enlarged from this summit. At least that is what the Swedish and Finnish ambassadors to Canada want.
“We are not looking for a plan that leads us to join the member countries. We hope to become members, at the summit in Madrid. We believe that we already meet NATO criteria,” insisted Swedish Ambassador Urban Ahlin in an interview.
While Canada and 28 of the 29 other member countries support these two candidacies, Turkey continues to oppose them. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pleads that the two countries harbor Kurdish “terrorists” and refuse to sell him weapons. Ambassadors Ahlin, from Sweden, and Roy Eriksson, from Finland, retort that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is classified as a terrorist entity, as in the rest of Europe, and that the sale of arms is prohibited (in Sweden) or regulated by permit (in Finland).
Turkey’s veto would instead be explained by a nationalist strategy by Erdoğan to increase his chances of re-election and an attempt to convince the Americans to sell him weapons instead.
Ambassador Eriksson remains optimistic that Turkey will come out on top, if not in Madrid this week, at least this summer. “That this is only a small delay in a process which has also taken place at record speed,” he hoped in an interview on Thursday.
Canada has already endorsed the candidacy of the two Nordic countries, by regulatory decree. All NATO countries must approve the addition of a new member.
A Third World War?
Finland and Sweden had remained neutral to Russia for decades. The invasion of Ukraine and the war crimes committed by Russian forces, however, changed things. “It’s a realignment of the tectonic plates that is happening in Europe,” observes Ambassador Eriksson.
At home, popular support for Finland’s NATO membership has risen from 25% a year ago to 76% last month.
The Finns in turn do not fear an imminent invasion from neighboring Russia. But they were warned by their government that a cyberattack was very possible and they were asked to stock up on cash and food.
NATO will also adopt its new strategic concept, in Madrid, which will report on new threats facing the alliance — such as disinformation and cyberattacks — and strategies to guard against them.
Swedish Ambassador Urban Ahlin remains worried that an escalation of the conflict will lead to war in Europe or even World War III. “The Swedes fear that things will get worse. And me too. Because we are facing an unpredictable player. And that is why we ask to be members of NATO. »