This text is taken from the Courrier de la Planète of June 21. Click here to subscribe.
The rise in sea levels is accelerating, accentuated by global warming. If this trend continues, wonders Sophie Lallemand, when will New York find itself underwater?
It’s not tomorrow that you’ll have to put on flippers and an oxygen tank to visit the Empire State Building or that the waters of the Upper Bay will submerge the torch brandished by the Statue of Liberty. Scientists estimate that glaciers and sea ice hold enough water to raise global ocean levels by about 70m; the One World Trade Center observatory, which culminates at an altitude of 386 m, will therefore remain dry for a long time.
On the other hand, the bull of Wall Street, he could find his legs in the water in the space of a single generation. The face of the city could, in fact, change radically and above all, quickly – from the horizon 2050, according to several reports.
New York, built where the Hudson and East Rivers flow into the Atlantic, is one of the most vulnerable cities in the world to rising waters. Its coastline stretches over 837 km and millions of New Yorkers crowd on banks threatened with submersion over the next few centuries.
Accelerated climb
According to the most pessimistic projections of the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, the water level around the Big Apple could rise by 76 cm by the 2050s, by 147 cm by the 2080 and 190 cm at the turn of 2100.
The waters, says NASA, are rising at a rate not seen in the past 2,500 years. Humanity, under the Paris agreement, is trying to limit the damage by capping warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Even by reaching this objective decided at the COP21, projections show that New York could suffer significant repercussions in a horizon ranging from 200 to 2000 years.
Several visualization tools make it possible to measure the impact of rising sea levels on neighboring towns. A rise of 1.5°C would lead to the disappearance of Battery Park, located at the southern tip of Manhattan. The water would also begin to eat into certain neighborhoods such as Tribeca, Soho, Hudson Yards, Chelsea and Brooklyn.
If humanity does not change course, warming will instead reach 2.7°C by 2100, according to the latest IPCC report. This warming would have considerable consequences for New York, which would lose a significant part of its territory to the sea. Coney Island would be almost entirely submerged, and only the Liberty Enlightening the World sculpture would emerge from Ellis Island, also completely covered in water.
A map designed by Google and based on data from Climate Central illustrates the scale of the floods ahead.
Vulnerable city
Although the advent of these scenarios still seems distant, New York remains vulnerable in the short term to climatic cataclysms. With current rising waters and predicted global warming, hurricanes like Sandy, which swept through New York in 2012, killing 44 people, knocking out two million New Yorkers of power and causing nearly $30 billion damage, will occur with increased frequency.
Currently, a storm surge like the one raised by Sandy is likely to occur once every 100 years. At the current rate, the risk will be once every 10 years in 2050.
New York is also preparing to face future climate change. Its “urban resilience” plan, endowed with a budget of 26 billion dollars, provides for the elevation of certain parks and the erection of walls to counter rising tides. The corps of engineers of the American army, which has the mandate to explore different solutions to counter New York to face the rising waters, also evoked the construction of a 10 km long dike, at the staggering cost of 150 billion of dollars.
Former President Donald Trump, when he learned of the project, derided it on social media. The hotel magnate and controversy had instead invited New Yorkers to “prepare their mop and their boiler” to avoid paying for a project that he considered “too expensive” and “useless”.