Legislative elections in France | A beating and a mess

He had promised to rid France of its extremes. It missed. Sunday’s legislative elections instead consecrated the rise of the radical left and the far right, depriving Emmanuel Macron of the absolute majority he needed to govern.

Jean-Christophe Laurence
The Press

“It’s a beating for Emmanuel Macron, it’s an immense disappointment and a defeat that no one in the ranks of power had predicted”, immediately sums up Caroline Vigoureux, political journalist at opinion.

The presidential coalition Together! won only 245 seats out of 577, ie 44 less than the 289 needed for an absolute majority. A victory in the form of a defeat for the Macronist camp, which had won more than 350 seats in 2017.

The NUPES (for New Popular Ecological and Social Union), a left-wing coalition created by the leader of La France insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, occupies second place with 131 seats, while Marine Le Pen’s National Rally carries out a historic breakthrough with 89 deputies. Eleven times more than in 2017!

This fragmented National Assembly, even “ungovernable”, according to various media, will clearly give headaches to the president and his prime minister, Elizabeth Borne, who finds himself in an unfortunate position and whose opposition is already claiming the head.

Because the tandem will find themselves confronted with two hostile wings and little inclined to compromise, whose views are diametrically opposed on issues as diverse as the environment, pensions, immigration, purchasing power, Europe or the NATO.

How will the president go about carrying out his vast field of reforms? That is the question.

Caroline Vigoureux points out that post-election coalitions are not in the DNA of French political culture or in that of Macronie, for that matter.

But this new government will have no choice but to water down its wine if it wishes to carry out part of its program without being put in difficulty by the opposition.

It is not excluded, among other scenarios, that Macronie turns to the 61 deputies of the right-wing party Les Républicains (LR), with which it has certain affinities, particularly on the economic level.

“There are no insurmountable disagreements between them. There are only a few subjects on which it is enough not to act, such as more progressive societal reforms, which are difficult to reconcile with an alliance with the traditional right, ”points out political scientist Thomas Guénolé.

The price of mistakes

The poor performance of the presidential party on Sunday can be explained by the wear and tear of power, the feeling of mistrust inspired by Macron’s policy and the wind of “clearance” which continues to blow over France.

But for the experts, Emmanuel Macron above all pays the price for tactical errors which contradict his reputation as a fine strategist. By running a campaign under the radar, in the hope of surfing on his achievements, the president deprived himself of the new breath that could have made the difference.

It was also without counting on the dynamic NUPES led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. However, it seems that this unprecedented left bloc (Greens, Socialists, Communists, La France insoumise) will not last beyond the ballot: despite Mélenchon’s calls to create a “single group” in the Assembly, everyone seemed on Monday want to take back his marbles.

On the strength of its unprecedented score, the National Rally could for its part establish itself as the main opposition group in the Assembly. An unexpected outcome, which confirms the normalization of the far right in France

“These are unquestionably the big winners of this election because they are a double hit,” observes political scientist Jean Petaux.

Note that with 245 deputies, the presidential coalition obtains the lowest relative majority in the history of the V^e Republic. A score much lower than the 275 deputies available to François Mitterrand from 1988 to 1993, which had enabled him to govern by seeking support sometimes on the left, sometimes on the right, and with great support from article 49-3.

The Macron/Borne tandem could want to push the use of this device to bypass Parliament to pass a text of law. But unlike the days of Mitterrand, who wielded it 39 times, today its use is limited to once per session, aside from the budget.

In short, Macronie is not out of the woods.