International | Energy transition: clearly visible changes for communities

To face the climate crisis, the global energy system will have to move, as we know, from fossil fuels to a carbon-free economy that does not emit greenhouse gases. This will bring about vast and profound changes in the immediate environment of people and communities around the world, and governments will need to prepare them well for the consequences of this vast transformation.

Yvan Cliche
Fellow, energy researcher, Center for International Studies and Research of the University of Montreal (CERIUM)

Change 1

A first profound change concerns the all-round electrification of the economy, from industrial processes to applications using electricity in residences: heat pumps, solar panels on roofs, electric vehicles.

This all carbon-free electricity means that we will have to consume much more of it than we currently do. In Quebec alone, the energy transition could lead to the addition of 100 terawatt hours (TWh) of clean electricity by 2050.

Hydro-Québec sold more than 210 TWh in 2021. The transition could therefore increase electricity consumption by 50% in just 30 years.

Such a transition will involve the addition of transmission lines, which are often not well received by the populations concerned, particularly in developed countries, as seen with Hydro-Québec’s renewable electricity export projects in Massachusetts. . Governments will have to better prepare citizens for this clearly visible addition of infrastructure, which of course has concrete impacts on the configuration of the territory, inhabited or not.

Change 2

The second change relates to the implementation of renewable energy projects. The costs of wind and solar energy and batteries have fallen by some 80% during the decade 2010-2020 and compete favorably with fossil fuels. But these projects, now profitable, require a lot of space: both on land and at sea, for offshore wind projects.

The US government, for example, is aiming for 1,600 gigawatts (GW) of solar power capacity by 2050. However, such a deployment would take up an area equivalent to Massachusetts.

Wind turbines are as tall as a 20-storey building, and a wind farm with multiple towers uses a lot of land. Their harmonious development is not a given, as we have seen in France where many wind projects are disputed.

With the war in Ukraine and the subsequent desire to get rid of energy dependence on Russia, the European Union has decided to accelerate their development: renewable energies will have to provide almost half (45%) of the electricity of by 2030 (REPowerEU plan).

However, obtaining permits takes a long time. Europe has four times more wind projects awaiting permits than projects under construction. A wind project in Germany, an ambitious country in this area, takes an average of five years to receive approval.

In a context of climate emergency, that seems like a long time. The German government seems to have understood this, since it recently tabled a law to speed up the study of projects.

Change 3

A third change concerns the mining industry. As much as the transition will be electric, it will rely on mining products. Because this transition, which relies on wind, solar and batteries, requires many more minerals than an economy based on fossil fuels. The main component of electric vehicles is the lithium-ion battery, which requires lithium, cobalt, nickel and so-called rare earth elements.

According to all of its growth scenarios, the International Energy Agency predicts an astronomical explosion in the use of these minerals. Nickel consumption, for example, will increase 140 times by 2040.

However, the mining industry on a global scale does not always get good press, especially among the communities located near the projects. There is also a concern about the traceability of the minerals, the transparency of their extraction, their acceptability and the benefits for the surrounding populations.

The Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, which holds large reserves of cobalt, is regularly singled out for artisanal mining practices that do not meet international standards of good governance.

Power lines cutting through landscapes, wind and solar farms strewing vast territories, mines disrupting soils and communities: these infrastructures will be increasingly present in our environment. In the methods thus recommended, the fight against climate change and the decarbonization of the economy will not be at zero cost: they will go through profound changes which will themselves raise major challenges, for which it is better to be well prepared.