At the end of the second round, Sunday, the President of the Republic will have to deal with a relative majority in the National Assembly. A failure for Emmanuel Macron, who will now have to find allies to govern.
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The disaster macronie feared has happened. The camp of the President of the Republic lost its absolute majority in the National Assembly during the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 19. According to our Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France Médias Monde and the parliamentary channels, Together! – the coalition of parties that support Emmanuel Macron – does not obtain that 224 seats at the Palais-Bourbon. Either below the fateful bar of 289 elected to win the absolute majority. The wave of 2017, when 350 deputies labeled En Marche or MoDem had swept through the Assembly is now very far away.
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This is a historic first since since the establishment of the five-year term in 2002, the heads of state have always obtained an absolute majority in the legislative elections which take place in the wake of the presidential election. We have to go back to 1988 to find a precedent of this type. At the time, the Prime Minister, Michel Rocard, had obtained only a relative majority in the National Assembly with only 275 seats and had to govern “with the contribution of the left or the right”recalls political scientist Pascal Perrineau.
“It opens up the possibility of a hindered, hampered government, which cannot carry out all the reforms it wants”explains to franceinfo the constitutionalist Jean-Philippe Derosier. “It makes the need for a government much more negotiating and diplomatic.”
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Reform of pensions, institutions, measures to counter inflation… The subjects of stumbling block between the New Popular, Ecological and Social Union (Nupes), which obtains 149 seats according to our estimate, and the government will not be lacking. Not to mention the weight of the future National Rally group, which is making a historic breakthrough in Parliament with 89 deputies.
An adviser to the executive nevertheless qualifies this table: “It will be up to us to gather more widely by seeking the right or the Republican left. And even if it is 30 parliamentarians, we will find them for the majority of projects”. The pace of the reforms will nevertheless be affected and the physiognomy of the five-year term will be profoundly changed.