The absolute majority in the National Assembly remains uncertain for the party with the presidential majority, according to our Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll, two days before the second round of the legislative elections.
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The Together candidates of the presidential majority would win between 265 and 305 seats, according to our Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for Radio France and France Televisions, published this Friday, two days before the second round of the legislative elections. The absolute majority being fixed at 289 seats, the majority “solid” in the National Assembly, desired Tuesday by Emmanuel Macron, remains uncertain.
Behind, the Nupes can hope to have 140 to 180 deputies. The LR/UDI/DVD candidates would total between 60 and 80 seats. The National Rally for its part could constitute a group of 20 to 50 deputies. The various candidates on the left (dissidents and overseas), would be 12 to 24 to make their entry into the National Assembly. Two to four seats would go to the various centers. Finally, our projection allocates 5 to 10 seats to other political sensibilities.
According to our poll, just over half of French people (53%) want Emmanuel Macron to obtain a majority in the National Assembly so that he can apply his policy. Conversely, 46% of those questioned want the left to win the majority of deputies on Sunday and for Jean-Luc Mélenchon to become Prime Minister and apply his program.
Finally, 47% of those questioned say they will vote on Sunday June 19 during the second round of the legislative elections. Participation in the first round of the 2022 legislative elections, Sunday June 12, was 47.5%. In the second round of the legislative elections of June 18, 2017, turnout was 42.64%.
This Ipsos Sopra Steria survey for Radio France and France Télévisions was carried out online from June 15 to 16 among 1,991 people registered on the electoral lists, constituting a representative sample of the French population aged 18 and over.
franceinfo would like to remind you that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls.