The war in Ukraine has placed the question of energy independence back at the heart of the debate. After several weeks of negotiations, the European Union has decided to adopt a embargo on almost all Russian oil. A situation which encourages countries, especially European ones, to find solutions in the event of an energy shortage, while in West Africa the difficulties in supplying cereals are becoming more and more problematic.
In Ireland, three scenarios under study and an “energy confinement”
In Ireland, the government is drawing up a secret contingency plan, in case the war in Ukraine causes a major fuel crisis in Europe. The emergency plan foresees three more or less catastrophic scenarios
If the first occurs, Ireland will import 20% less in September. In this case, the fuel reserves can still last 3 months. Second scenario 35% shortage in December and a third more extreme: in February 2023, there is not enough left to run the country.
And it is in the latter case that this emergency plan, which strongly resembles energy confinement, would be activated. All non-essential workers will be required to stay home and limit car travel. Regarding service stations, only a hundred will be supplied and will only provide fuel to essential workers. Caregivers or farmers, for example. If the situation is not so critical, it will rather be a system of rotation at the pump: one day the odd license plates, one day the even numbers. And finally, the last measure, a reduction in the speed allowed on the highway.
But is Ireland really at risk of such a shortage? Not really. The country is rather protected from these supply problems since it imports mainly from the United Kingdom which depends on Russia for less than 10% of its gasoline stocks. But it is a preventive measure. Ireland simply wants to be ready since we don’t know how long the war will last.
The Spaniards want to share their expertise and “regasify” liquid gas
Spain is poorly connected by gas pipelines to the rest of Europe. The country has therefore historically developed an important infrastructure to receive liquefied gas and thus cover its needs from non-European imports by ship. Spain has 5 regasification plants and therefore proposes to send part of this gas to the rest of Europe.
“Traditionally, it was a purely Franco-Spanish subject. But now, many European countries are very interested in it”, explains Jose Manuel Albares, the Minister of Foreign Affairs. “The Iberian Peninsula represents 50% of European regasification capacities. If we want to avoid dependence on Russian gas, it is obvious that we are part of the solution“.
A solution which is however not without problems because Spain is poorly connected by gas pipelines. Currently, there are two, one passes through the Basque Country, in Irun, the other through Navarre, in Larrau. Spain wants a third, which would pass through Catalonia and the eastern Pyrenees. France dragged its feet for a long time, because until then it was thought that the gas would mainly travel from North to South, also because it is expensive and the inhabitants of the areas crossed by the gas pipeline are often hostile. But according to the latest news, the European Commission is very interested in it, which should facilitate the question of financing. If the decision is made, it will be necessary to wait at least 2 and a half years for the construction.
In West Africa, the fear of famine
Many African countries are very dependent on Russian and Ukrainian cereals, wheat in the lead. Due to the war, they fear for their food security. Wheat prices have already more than doubled in one year.
Although the price of bread is set by the public authorities in many African countries, such as Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire or Egypt, States can no longer continue to freeze the price of baguettes, faced with the increase costs. In Senegal, millers have even planned to go on strike, to protest against the sharp reduction in their margin, or even sales at a loss.
In addition to cereals, African countries are experiencing fertilizer supply difficulties, which weakens the entire food chain, and raises the risk of a major food crisis.
In West Africa, Senegalese President Macky Sall is particularly active on this issue. Senegal imports 60% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, so the country is particularly concerned by the issue. But it is also as current president of the African Union that the Senegalese president met Vladimir Poutine on June 2, 2022, in Sochi.
In an interview with our colleagues from RFI, Macky Sall returned to this exchange which mainly focused on the issue of wheat deliveries, which has become a real lever for negotiations. According to him, President Vladimir Putin is asking for the demining of the port of Odessa, and promises in exchange not to attack the Ukrainian city. This would let through the cargoes of 20 to 25 million tonnes of wheat currently blocked in the port. Macky Sall pleads for this solution, because he fears he says “a very serious situation of famine which could destabilize the continent”.