She had never been so high. Abstention reached 52.49% during the first round of legislative elections, Sunday June 12, according to the final results published by the Ministry of the Interior. Of the 48,953,984 voters called to the polls, 25,696,476 did not turn out. The previous record, set during the 2017 legislative elections (51.30%), has already been beaten.
This is enough to verify, once again, the consecrated expression which makes abstentionists members of the “first party of France”. But this one is far from being a uniform block. These electors do not all have the same reasons for not voting. Franceinfo answers three questions raised by the extent of this phenomenon.
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What is the profile of abstainers?
The younger a voter, the greater the risk of not voting. The majority of voters under 60 abstained on Sunday, according to an Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for Radio France, France Télévisions, France 24, RFI and LCP. Abstention was particularly high among 18-24 year olds (69%) and 25-34 year olds (71%). It remained above the average among 35-49 year olds (59%), while 50-59 year olds are 52% to have shunned the ballot box.
For Vincent Tiberj, researcher in electoral sociology at Sciences Po Bordeaux, this turnout was expected: “We generally observe that with the renewal of generations, we vote less and less. It is the generation of ‘baby boomers’ who vote the most, in particular because they still believe in politics.“. “The younger generation is a little jaded with regard to elections and democracy”confirms on franceinfo Olivier Galland, sociologist and director of research emeritus at the CNRS.
A finding that does not mean “that society, and especially young people, are depoliticized”underlines Vincent Tiberj, interviewed by franceinfo. “They just don’t find themselves in the way of governing anymore.” Sociologist Olivier Galland notes a preference for youth “for forms of protest action”like demonstrations or “the posting of opinions on social networks”.
Turnout also differs according to the social background of voters. Still according to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria survey, a majority of voters from the lower middle classes, popular or disadvantaged categories abstained. The French who earn less than 1,250 euros net per month are those who voted the least (61% abstention).
This combination of age and social background tends to favor the right and Together!, the coalition of the presidential majority, believes Vincent Tiberj. “Emmanuel Macron now has an electoral structure that resembles that of the Republicansnote this voting specialist. As it is the oldest and the richest who abstain the least, this explains in particular why LR is so high and why Emmanuel Macron finds himself at the level of Nupes.
How to explain this rejection of the vote?
The massive abstention observed on Sunday is part of “in an evolution that has affected the majority of polls since the 1980s”explains to franceinfo Christele Lagier, mmistress of political science conferences at the University of Avignon and specialist in the subject. More and more voters are passing their turn, but not necessarily at all elections, adds Vincent Tiberj: “Intermittent voting is growing more and more”.
“We are less and less certain that people will move. And the abstainers are not the same each time.”
Vincent Tiberj, researcher at Science Po Bordeauxat franceinfo
This trend can be explained by multiple factors. First of all, “the growing distrust of political representatives and an offer that no longer satisfies voters, who feel disconnected from their elected representatives”, emphasizes Christèle Lagier. Olivier Galland points to a “democratic fatigue” for young people. He notes “a moral discredit of political personnel”. An observation that he relates to his investigation carried out with Marc Lazar, A plural youthpublished in February 2022, in which 69% of 18-24 year olds surveyed “believe that politicians are corrupt”.
Another explanation: the reversal of the electoral calendar since 1997. The election of deputies now always follows that of the president by a few weeks, which has contributed to disinteresting voters in the legislative elections, especially when their favorite candidate has not succeeded. to access the Elysée. “When the legislative elections are used to designate who will really govern, as in 1986, 1993 or 1997 [trois élections qui ont conduit à une cohabitation]we can see that the abstention rate is dropping significantly”highlighted Vincent Tiberj.
In the political context of 2022, this strong abstention is also explained by “the lack of debate between the presidential and the legislative elections”explains the Bordeaux researcher. “There was a strategy on the part of Emmanuel Macron to set up a ‘chloroform campaign’, as he had called it The Obs (link reserved for subscribers), to avoid mobilizing and dividing the electorate, and to reduce adversity against the camp of Together!. It may be electorally smart, but many voters did not turn out. And that is problematic.”
Is the rise of abstention inevitable?
The work of Olivier Galland makes the worrying observation of a “decline in young people’s attachment to democracy”. For the sociologist, one of the explanations for their abstention could be the under-representation of youth among political personnel. “We need a bigger renewal”, he pleads. But beyond this question, he observes that young people deplore “a certain impotence of politics to change things, especially for the climate emergency”.
The return of abstainers to the polls could pass “by the introduction of proportional representation, as well as the frequent use of referendums”suggests Vincent Tiberj. But Christèle Lagier judges that a “technical reform (…) won’t be enough” : “This also goes through political education. Our leaders make schools, like Sciences Po, Polytechnique… We must educate our fellow citizens and give them the means to form a political culture”. The researcher adds other proposals: “a renewal of the political class” and “a limitation of the accumulation of mandates over time”.
Will these tracks be followed by the executive? Nothing is less sure. During his presidential campaign, Emmanuel Macron proposed the formation of a “transpartisan commission” responsible for “renovating institutions”and he declared himself in favor of the establishment of the “true” proportional to the legislative ones. But he had already promised “a proportional dose” in 2017, before abandoning this project during his first term. “Our first collective duty is to reduce abstention“, reacted Elisabeth Borne in view of the turnout on Sunday, according to Le Figaro. But the Prime Minister did not detail what the “institutional reform” she promises, or how she would bring the French back to the polls.