This is the result of a paradox: the far right is progressing at the polls but does not confirm the dynamics of the presidential election. On the evening of the first round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 12, the National Rally (RN) obtained 19.1% of the vote, or 5.9 points more than in 2017, but finished behind the New Popular, Ecological and Social Union. (nupes) and the presidential majority.
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Marine Le Pen’s political formation can now aim for between 20 and 45 seats in the National Assembly, according to the Ipsos-Sopra Steria estimate for France Télévisions, Radio France, France Médias Monde and parliamentary channels. According to the far-right party, he is qualified for the second round in at least 200 constituencies. Unless there is a big surprise, the RN will thus be able to form a political group – the threshold being set at 15 seats – unlike Eric Zemmour, his rival on the far right, who only totals 4.1% of the vote with his Reconquest candidates!.
However, the results obtained by the RN for this first round of the legislative elections are misleading. If the far-right party seems able to do at least as well as the 35 deputies (a record for the far-right party) obtained by the National Front in 1986, Marine Le Pen misses, at the same time, a major challenge: to establish herself as the first opposition force against Emmanuel Macron.
This score nevertheless seemed to satisfy the boss of the RN on the evening of the first round. “The second round offers us the possibility of sending a large group of patriotic deputies to the new Assembly. You have a vital role to play, as never before. A victory for the national camp is within reach of the vote”launched Marine Le Pen from his stronghold of Hénin-Beaumont (Pas-de-Calais), Sunday evening.
On the evening of the second round of the presidential election, April 24, the RN candidate had nevertheless promised her voters to win “the great battle of the legislative”. And then, nothing. The finalist in the Elysian ballot, well ahead in the first round in the 11th constituency of Pas-de-Calais with 53.96% of the vote, pays for a legislative campaign marked by relative discretion. As the story goes The world, Marine Le Pen has also opted for a few days of vacation, before embarking on the battle. “A saving greenery”according to his entourage at franceinfo.
During this parenthesis, she let Jordan Bardella provide after-sales service for her program on television sets. The acting president of the party wanted to be reassuring, on May 6, on franceinfo: “We met yesterday to prepare for his return. We are gradually entering into this campaign and we intend to elect as many deputies as possible to the National Assembly”.
But on her return in May, Marine Le Pen never managed to weigh in on this campaign. The fault of a political agenda quickly saturated by the formation of the new government of Elisabeth Borne. Or even in the place taken by Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the New Popular Ecological and Social Union (Nupes) in the debates. “He is opportunistic, cunning and clever, the Insoumis! It is true that by asking his voters to make him the next Prime Minister of Emmanuel Macron, he has managed to place himself in the center, when he is came behind us in the presidential election”acknowledges an influential RN executive.
Spectator of the Macron-Mélenchon duel, the RN therefore preferred to continue its low-noise campaign in rural areas and small towns. Always with the same theme in mind: purchasing power. In the continuity of its strategy of “de-demonization” widely declined during the presidential election, Marine Le Pen also refused any political agreement with Eric Zemmour. To weaken the boss of Reconquête! a little more, she did not hesitate to send RN candidates to all the constituencies where Reconquête! had invested his own.
The Zemmour threat was therefore no longer a subject. And facing the presidential majority, Marine Le Pen quickly played beaten. Unlike the presidential election where she believed she could compete with Emmanuel Macron, the polls quickly gave the head of state and his allies the lead in the legislative elections. Distanced by around 8 to 10 points by the macronie, or even by the Nupes according to the barometers, the RN gave the impression of campaigning to save the furniture. Namely: get a group at the Palais-Bourbon. Emmanuel Macron and his family being out of reach, it was therefore on Jean-Luc Mélenchon that she targeted her blows. Without much success.
“Jean-Luc Mélenchon is lying to the French. From the evening of the first round, everyone will realize that in reality there is absolutely zero chance that he will have a majority of deputies in the National Assembly.”
Marine Le Penat franceinfo, June 7, 2022
The systematic gap in votes between the presidential and the legislative elections for the RN is also one of the explanations for the score achieved this Sunday. The far-right party first pays for its lack of local roots: it does not lead any of the 13 French regions, has since 2017 only seven deputies in the Assembly and is at the head of only about twenty of cities. “The RN has always missed the legislative elections because it has no territorialization strategy. It is also a party that no longer trains activists on the ground, and that Marine Le Pen pays cash”analyzes the specialist of the extreme right, Erwan Lecoeur.
But for the sociologist, Marine Le Pen above all made the strategic error of positioning herself on the evening of the second round of the presidential election as “the first opponent” to Emmanuel Macron, following the legislative elections.
“Marine Le Pen thought that she could be the first opponent of the presidential majority by simply forming a group. She did not think that the left would be able to unite. It is a real tactical error”
Erwan Lecoeur, far-right specialistat franceinfo
Next Sunday, on the evening of the second round of the legislative elections, Marine Le Pen therefore has a great chance of finding the National Assembly alongside an unprecedented number of deputies for a far-right party in France. But if this is the first time, without going through a proportional vote, that the RN will therefore have a group of deputies, the rest of Marine Le Pen’s political career remains unclear. “Before planning for the 2027 presidential election, Marine Le Pen will above all take a vacation. Then, either Jordan Bardella is very strong and she will support him, or, this is not the case, and maybe She’ll show up again”says Erwan Lecoeur.