For the past two weeks, practically all commentators and political analysts in Quebec have gone there with their explanation of the success of the CAQ in the polls. Everything indicates that the party of François Legault will crush the Liberal Party (except, of course, in the Anglo-ethnic counties) and pulverize what remains of the PQ.
The PQ owes – in part – its decline to the erroneous political choices of its leaders over the past twenty years: they wanted to win votes from Québec Solidaire on the left rather than open up to the center right where the CAQ and, before she, the ADQ drew their growing electorate. One can even wonder if François Legault was not inspired by the politically ambiguous “Movement of sovereignty-association” created by René Lévesque.
Liberal abjection Charest-Couillard
The Liberals are forever sullied by the corruptions and embezzlements emblematic of “Charest-Couillard”, the liberal abjection that has afflicted Quebec.
One day, a historian or a political scientist will have to do a comparative study between the Charest-Couillard era and that of Duplessis – who was in power for 18 years – to determine which was the most corrupt in the history of Quebec. The names of how many notorious mobsters have been associated with the PLQ for 20 years? See the Gomery and Charbonneau commissions as well as the many journalistic investigations by the Quebecor, Radio-Canada and La Presse media.
What is also remarkable is that practically all the criminals associated with the Charest-Couillard clan have escaped prison: procedural defects, reasonable delays and other dubious legal conveniences have been invoked. The real reason is that Quebec’s judicial and police systems are plagued by Liberals, both federally and provincially.
The aversion, contempt and rejection for the Liberals among the French-speaking majority are such that they cannot hope to regain power for a few decades. They must wait for immigration and demography to do their work.
The CAQ therefore seems destined to remain the dominant party in Quebec for a long time. Our Prime Minister is convinced that he has the winning combination to stay in power.
An independent “geriatric” Quebec
And what would be this “Legault hypothesis” that would explain his political successes?
He seems to believe that Quebecers are an increasingly “geriatric” people, breathless, who want above all calm and peace, while saving face. A sweet and quiet death while being pampered with honeyed and insignificant nationalist slogans. Justin Trudeau knows well that he has nothing to fear from François Legault and does not seem to care too much about his admonitions.
Time will tell if I’m right about the “Legault hypothesis” or if, in a completely unpredictable burst of patriotism, he will try to mobilize Quebec for a third attempt to achieve Quebec independence.