According to the latest polls, we could witness in most constituencies a duel in the second round of legislative elections between the candidate of the majority and that of Nupes. At the National Rally, we fear finding ourselves out of the game during these legislative elections.
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This is the great fear that runs within the RN itself. Caught between the government and the left, Marine Le Pen took time to get moving. Conversely, by presenting a single candidate in all the constituencies, the Nupes offered itself a good chance of finishing most often in one of the first two places in the first round. However, this is the condition to qualify for sure since a candidate who comes third must collect at least 12.5% of the registered. With the expected high abstention, around 50%, a minimum of 25% of the votes will therefore be needed. Difficult for RN candidates, even more so with competition from Reconquest zemmourists.
A few weeks ago, she explained that it would be politically and institutionally logical for Emmanuel Macron to obtain a majority in the Assembly. Not the best way to mobilize his supporters. And we have seen it in municipal and regional elections, the popular electorate of the RN votes less and less when they know victory is out of reach. Sunday June 5, during her only meeting in Hénin-Beaumont, Marine Le Pen launched, without really believing it, the figure of 150 RN deputies. It corresponds to the number of constituencies where the far-right candidate came first in the second round of the presidential election.
In fact, Marine Le Pen has much more modest ambitions. She hopes for a group, ie 15 deputies, which offers resources and speaking time. With only 8 elected in 2017, the RN was invisible and inaudible to Parliament throughout the legislature. However, it has been 34 years since the far right has had a group in the Assembly. Thanks to proportional representation, the FN had 35 deputies between 1986 and 1988.
For the RN, a group would also be a way to prepare for more distant deadlines. And first on the financial level. The RN is weighed down by a gigantic debt, it needs the best score and as many elected officials as possible to bail out. And on the political level, it is a tool to prepare for the presidential election of 2027. A deadline which is already in everyone’s mind at the RN since for the first time in 53 years, it will not necessarily be the name of Le Pen which will appear on the ballot of the far-right party.