Posted yesterday at 4:00 p.m.
Despite all the economic measures of NATO member countries, we do not see any effect on Russia and even less on their war. […] It would be very interesting for your team to focus on documenting the impacts of economic measures on Russia.
Jacques Tremblay
Along with the transfer of arms to Ukrainian forces, sanctions form the backbone of the arsenal put forward by Ukraine’s allies in response to the invasion of Ukraine. But how effective are they? Your question is crucial.
Let’s start by noting that the imposition of sanctions is not a whim of Western democracies. They are deemed necessary by Ukraine.
Almost two weeks ago, when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky used the World Economic Forum in Davos to address the rest of the world, he called for both more weapons and ‘maximum’ sanctions against Moscow .
It is important, for him, to toughen the sanctions “so that Russia and any other potential aggressor who wants to wage a brutal war against its neighbor clearly know the immediate consequences of their actions”.
It is still necessary, precisely, that the consequences be felt…
Sanctions have been put in place very gradually since the beginning of the invasion. The goal is to stifle the Russian economy, but that won’t happen overnight.
Certain indicators show that the Russian economy is affected. We have just learned, for example, that industrial production in April fell by 8.5% compared to the previous month. It also fell by 1.6% compared to the same period last year.
“As long as the hydrocarbons are not affected, we will not touch the heart of the Russian economy”, explains Sophie Marineau, doctoral student in the history of international relations at the Catholic University of Louvain and specialist in the question.
Ukraine’s allies are likely aware of this. Moreover, on June 2, the European Union approved new sanctions which include an embargo on Russian oil. Under this agreement, oil imports will fall by about 90% by the end of the year.
This agreement was obtained in a snatch and it will now be necessary to see whether the members of the European Union will want and be able to agree on the subject of gas imports from Moscow. Just as it is reported that Washington is currently the scene of debates about how far the US administration can go. It is that from a certain point, it is estimated that it is the world economy which could also seize up.
Canada, like its allies in this case, has continued in recent weeks to deploy new sanctions, so that approximately 1,500 Russian individuals or entities are now targeted.
And there are some – including bans on the export of certain goods and technologies – that are precisely designed to affect warfare. We are thinking here, among other things, of products from the Canadian aerospace sector that could be used by Moscow for military equipment.
That said, to believe that the sanctions adopted against Moscow will push the Russian regime to hoist the white flag would be excessively optimistic, according to Sophie Marineau. “The sanctions have impacts, but will they be enough to put an end to this war? It’s unlikely,” she said.
On the other hand, if Ukraine’s allies remain united and continue to increase the pressure, there may come a time when Vladimir Putin will understand that it is to his advantage to opt for a negotiated solution to this conflict.