Yes or no to the independence of New Caledonia? The referendum provided for by the 1998 Nouméa accords will not ultimately be postponed as had been envisaged due to the health crisis. The consultation will take place on December 12. After the very strong epidemic wave this summer, the government kept its eyes riveted on the rates of contamination: an insufficient reflux would have been the one and only condition for a postponement. “Objectively, we can hold this referendum, so let’s go” exposes a government source. According to our information, the issue was discussed Wednesday, November 10 in the closed session of the defense council, around Emmanuel Macron, and the decision was announced on the spot in recent hours.
For the executive, the outcome of the consultation in New Caledonia remains uncertain. Several elements should be noted, which could tip the balance to one side or the other: the state of the Caledonian electorate is rather favorable to the separatists; at the same time, the aid that came from Paris during the health crisis was undoubtedly a form of unintentional campaign for maintenance.
In the equation also, the fact that the separatists will campaign for non-participation in the ballot, they have repeated in recent hours. What to prepare the spirits to a challenge of the result if it is the maintenance which wins, it will take place, a priori, before the UN bodies.
Regarding the risk of unrest following the referendum, there is no “no signs of violence” we explain within the executive … “But we are not immune to the separatists being overtaken by their base.” And in case of victory of the maintenance, one should not expect a big popular festival, the situation will remain tense.
A victory for independence would, on the other hand, be a big setback for Emmanuel Macron, a way out “cataclysmic” says government advisor. “It would obviously be an angle of attack for the right” completes another, all the more so at four months of the presidential election. Some like Xavier Bertrand have understood this well. The candidate for the LR nomination denounced three days ago “the deafening silence” Emmanuel Macron on New Caledonia, reproaching him in plain language for not campaigning. “No one doubts the president’s wish, but he is the guarantor of freedom of expression” justifies one of his relatives.
Anyway, if New Caledonia remains French, the question of its place within France will not be resolved, but if on December 12, New Caledonians choose independence, there will certainly be a wave immediate political shock.