Of all the provinces and territories of Canada, it is in Quebec that the mortality rate associated with COVID-19 has been the highest, confirms an analysis published Monday by the Canadian Medical Association Journal.
“We wanted to know if the mortality during the first 18 months of the pandemic was really specifically associated with COVID, or if there was something broader going on,” summarized the study’s author, Professor Kim. McGrail from the University of British Columbia.
At the other end of the scale, the death rate associated with COVID-19 has been lowest in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.
The data used in this study come from Health Canada for the period between March 2020 and October 2021, i.e. before the emergence of the Omicron variant.
Ontario is the province where excess mortality (i.e., the difference between the expected death toll and the actual death toll) and deaths caused by COVID-19 have been most closely aligned. Excess mortality was higher in British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan than elsewhere in the country.
Fewer road accident deaths
The precise association between the coronavirus pandemic and excess mortality is difficult to establish, however, the researchers warn. British Columbia, for example, was swept by a heatwave in the summer of 2021, and the heat drove up the death toll.
On the other hand, since Canadians were confined to their homes, there was also a drop in the number of deaths caused by road accidents and attributable to the flu during the pandemic.
“And on top of that, there are people who have delayed their care, who have avoided going to hospital for fear of the virus, surgeries have been postponed,” Professor McGrail said. All of these things can also be a source of mortality. It is very difficult to discern what would have happened without the pandemic. »
The pandemic, we need to remember, has wreaked havoc in CHSLDs in Quebec. Analysts have argued that this has distorted the picture of excess mortality in the province, since some of the seniors who have been swept away by the virus were nearing the end of their lives anyway.
Yes, it’s possible that COVID has shortened the lives of some seniors by a few days, admitted Professor McGrail, but that’s probably not the case for all.
“But maybe also they would be dead only in two or three years,” she said. These are two completely different situations, and they should not be confused. »
That being said, in analyzing weekly trends in COVID-19-associated mortality in Quebec and Nova Scotia, researchers found excess mortality in some weeks, but below-expected mortality in other weeks, so ” It’s possible that [la maladie] caught people who were really coming to the end of their lives in Quebec,” said Ms. McGrail.
The COVID-19 pandemic is a complex tapestry of intertwining and intertwining elements, she continues, and it is becoming very difficult to discern which factor is responsible for what, “but it is very important to try to understand anyway.
We are not immune to the emergence of a new variant or a new health crisis, recalls Professor McGrail, and the “variations between provinces can help us” to better understand the experience we have just come from. to cross.
“You have to register total mortality much, much faster, because clearly, it’s total mortality that you have to follow,” she said. You have to take the time to understand what factors contribute to it. I really think that the only way to have an adequate answer in the future is to understand what worked well and what didn’t work well. »