Once again this year, a more active than average hurricane season is expected, according to the Canadian Hurricane Center (CHC) and the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Posted at 2:30 p.m.
NOAA predicts there will be between 14 and 21 named storms this season in the Atlantic, while the average for the last 30 years is 14. Of that number, between six and 10 are expected to reach hurricane status.
“Chances are good that we will have an active season,” said CHC meteorologist Bob Robichaud at a press conference on Tuesday. NOAA estimates that 2022 has a 65% chance of a busier than normal season, and only a 10% chance of less so.
Last year, no less than 21 storms had winds strong enough to be named, surpassing predictions and exhausting the list of names provided for this purpose. Of that number, eight entered the CHC Response Zone, nearly double the average of between four and five storms.
“We had our first hurricane in several years here in Canada with larry which hit Newfoundland as a category 1 storm,” also recalled Mr. Robichaud.
Officially, the hurricane season runs from 1er June to November 30, when the temperature of the Atlantic waters is high enough to be conducive to a tropical cyclone, and “September is the most active month,” said the meteorologist.
But “right now, water temperatures in the Atlantic are on average warmer than normal already,” he said. The first named storm this year – which has yet to be detected – will be calledAlex.
According to Mr. Robichaud, the large number of forecast and proven storms in recent years is partly attributable to the improved precision of the tools available to meteorologists. “So we are now detecting thunderstorms that we probably wouldn’t have detected just 10 years ago. »
As for the influence of climate change, “we won’t necessarily have more storms with a warmer climate, but the storms we do have could be a bit stronger,” he noted.
The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that “the proportion of hurricanes in the strongest categories has probably increased” over the past 40 years.
It also points out that “human life and safety in North America and in particular along the coasts […] of Atlantic Canada” will be threatened by “severe storms and hurricanes, even with global warming limited to 1.5°C”.