The resignation of Jason Kenney, following the disappointing result obtained in his vote of confidence on Wednesday, sent shock waves through the Alberta political scene and among the Canadian conservative family. The difficulties of the Premier of Alberta, challenged within his United Conservative Party (PCU), were however well known. And the fate that has been reserved for him testifies to a deep polarization that is tearing Albertan Conservatives, but also federal ones, apart.
After helping to found the PCU five years ago, merging the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta and the Wildrose, Jason Kenney was shown the door by a minority of its members enough to dash any hopes he could. keep hanging on until next year’s general election.
Mr. Kenney won his vote of confidence with less than 1,000 votes and 51.4% support. A result he did not expect, he admitted on Wednesday, announcing his resignation.
As of Thursday evening, the training caucus had not yet decided whether it would allow Mr. Kenney to remain leader and prime minister while waiting to choose a successor, or whether an interim leader would take over immediately.
“We talk a lot about the polarization of politics in Canada right now. But really, it’s the Conservatives who are polarized,” says Calgary pollster Janet Brown.
These soundings show that the New Democrats — the main opposition party in Alberta — are unanimous on almost all current issues. “Anyone who wins the Conservative leadership federally will face a significant challenge in bringing this big family together, as Jason Kenney tried to do. »
The management of the pandemic caused him headaches. He was criticized both for not imposing enough health measures — by the people of Alberta — and for imposing too many — by some of the Conservatives. But Jason Kenney has also been criticized for a style of governance that is too authoritarian. As early as November 2019, even before the pandemic began, Janet Brown saw a decline in the popularity of the Alberta premier.
Frédéric Boily, professor of political science at the University of Alberta, explains in turn that Mr. Kenney is the victim of a movement to the right of the political right which originated before the arrival of COVID-19. . And the pandemic has come to exacerbate these tensions, as two schools of thought have emerged among conservatives: a smaller government granting absolute freedom, or a conservatism that still believes in state intervention.
This tug of war made Jason Kenney the latest in a string of right-wing Alberta premiers who failed to complete their terms. Since 2004, only New Democrat Rachel Notley (who remains leader of her party) has governed for four years.
“We are in a period where there is a risk of division and factionalism which risks breaking up the conservative movement, believes Frédéric Boily. We see it in the leadership race of the federal Conservative Party as well. »
A repositioning against Ottawa?
Member of Parliament for Calgary from 1997 to 2016 and minister in Stephen Harper’s government between 2008 and 2015, Jason Kenney multiplied public outings against Justin Trudeau. His government challenged (unsuccessfully) the federal carbon tax and is still challenging Bill C-69, which tightened Ottawa’s environmental assessment process.
Behind the scenes at the Council of the Federation, however, he was less assertive. He defended the interests of Alberta and aligned himself with the consensus of all the provinces, reports a source within one of these.
Janet Brown believes that the PCU is not guaranteed to camp more to the right in choosing its next leader. The merger that gave birth to the party has left many Alberta Progressive Conservatives orphans who may decide to get involved again, she observes.
A return to the sources of the Wildrose could on the other hand calm the separatist factions of Alberta, which would feel heard again with the PCU.
Any party leader and Alberta premier will always stand up to Ottawa, however, she confirms like Frédéric Boily. “Relations between Alberta and Ottawa will be strong. Or the temperature could rise further,” said the political scientist. Because Mr. Kenney has also been criticized for not having obtained results against the federal government of Justin Trudeau.
The former leaders of the Wildrose, Brian Jean and Danielle Smith, have notably announced that they will seek the succession of Mr. Kenney. In confirming her intentions on Thursday, Ms. Smith argued that Alberta should, like Quebec, assert its rights against Ottawa.