Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower oil no longer leave the Black Sea ports. Prices are skyrocketing. Many African countries depended on the two countries, major grain exporters. Fertilizer prices are also rising, which will have consequences for local production.
African countries produce between 22 and 25 million tonnes of wheat and import nearly 55, more than half of which goes to North Africa. Wheat flour consumption has increased significantly in recent years, especially in African cities. “Wheat flour has the advantage of being easy to make bread, unlike other local cereals such as sorghum or millet”, says Matthieu Brun, scientific director of the Foundation for Agriculture and Rurality in the World (Farm).
With the conflict in Ukraine, prices are soaring, and not just those of wheat. This increase has already been transmitted to all substitute cereals, including rice. Added to this is the increase in the price of diesel and gas. “As in 2008, energy prices have increased, leading to higher food prices”says Franck Galtier, researcher in political economy at the Center for International Cooperation in Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD).
In addition, Russia is the first world exporter of urea, the second of potash and ammonia, necessary for the production of fertilizers. The rise in natural gas prices is already making ammonia production more expensive. With fertilizer prices almost doubling since the summer of 2021, there will be consequences for local production. In 2020, countries in sub-Saharan Africa imported 5.6 million tonnes of nitrogen fertilizers. South Africa, Ethiopia, Malawi and Kenya are the main importers. Nigeria is the only country in West Africa to produce it.
“In some countries, producers will have to absorb the cost of increased inputs, if they can, while elsewhere others will have no choice but to buy less, which will have consequences for yields of certain crops.
Matthieu Brun, scientific director of the FarmFoundation for World Agriculture and Rurality
In addition to the consequences of the war in Ukraine, there are those of the jihadist attacks in the Sahel, which have led to massive population displacements and a drop in agricultural production. In Niger, the cereal harvest recorded a fall of nearly 40% in 2021, in Mali by 15% and in Burkina Faso by 10%.
African countries must, more than ever, put in place active agricultural policies to get closer to a certain food sovereignty. And this, while the share of imports in consumption has increased from 10% in 1975 to 25% today, mainly due to the increase in the urban population.
the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has sounded the alarm in recent days. “This is an unprecedented crisis for the continent”underlined the chief economist of UNDP Africa, Raymond Gilpin. “We see the possibility of tensions in hotspots like the Sahel, parts of central Africa and the Horn of Africa”did he declare.