we explain why May 9 is a key date for Vladimir Putin

“Hurrah, hurrah!” As every year, Russia will celebrate, on May 9, the “Day of Victory”. This date marks the capitulation of Nazi Germany in 1945 to the Allies. Several military ceremonies will be organized with great fanfare across the country. The largest is scheduled for Moscow’s Red Square, attended by Vladimir Putin, 11,000 soldiers, 131 units of military equipment and 77 planes and helicopters, according to Russian news agency Interfax. (in Russian).

According to US intelligence quoted by CNN and the British Ministry of Defense (in English)May 9 also marks a deadline for the Russian president, who intends to declare a victory or significant progress on the Ukrainian front. “Ahead of May 9, Putin has set himself the goal of a victory parade for this war,” said Ukrainian Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov.

“For Russia, May 9 is a national holiday, an important military appointment and it is almost certain that, for the president Putin, it must be a day of victory”, also said Emmanuel Macron, April 8 on RTL.

Unlike its European allies, Russia celebrates the end of World War II on May 9, not the 8, due to the time difference. The surrender of Nazi Germany had been signed at 11:01 p.m. on May 8, 1945, in Berlin, or at 1:01 a.m. on May 9 in Moscow. “At the fall of the USSR, this victory over Nazism was made sacred and brought up to date by the central power, because Russia had to be built on a ‘positive’ history, explains Carole Grimaud Potter, a teacher of Russian geopolitics. It’s a date more glorious than the fall of the USSR and a way to shove the purges of the Soviet period under the rug.”

“The date of May 9 brings together all generations, ethnic groups and republics of the young Russian Federation”.

Carole Grimaud Potter, Russia specialist

at franceinfo

May 9 is then a day of mourning, where Russians remember the more than 20 million Soviet soldiers and civilians who died during the Second World War, the heaviest tribe of the conflict. Marches of the “regiments of immortals” are organized, where the population wears the ribbon of Saint George – a symbol of Russian military power – and marches with portraits of fallen soldiers.

Then with the arrival of Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin, the date becomes a great patriotic celebration whose watchword is: “We can repeat it”, relates Cécile Vaissié, professor of Russian and Soviet studies. “The idea is to say: ‘We can defeat Nazism again'”, expresses the researcher.

“There is an aggressive Soviet revival logic, where red flags of the USSR are stuck on tanks, children wear 1940s uniforms making Z and V signs [symboles de soutien à l’armée russe].”

Cécile Vaissié, professor of Russian and Soviet studies

at franceinfo

Traditionally, the Russian president makes a speech in which he highlights “the greatness of Russia on the international scene, its military power, its ‘heroes of the nation'”, continues Carole Grimaud Potter. International leaders are invited. During the military parade, new army equipment is exhibited, such as tanks or sometimes intercontinental ballistic missiles.

For Moscow, “May 9 is an opportunity to show the vitality of the army and the defense industrial complex”, explains Isabelle Facon, Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research. Historically, Russia has relied more on its military power to impose itself in the international game than in the technological or economic sectors.

This year, Vladimir Putin could thus take advantage of this commemoration to put into perspective the victory of 1945 and what he calls “special military operation” in Ukraine. During his speech on Russian television on February 24, he justified his invasion of Ukraine because it was necessary “demilitarize” and “denazify the Ukrainian state”. He also called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his ministers “clique of drug addicts and neo-Nazis” and accused them of committing “genocide” towards the Russian-speaking populations in the Donbass.

With these references, “Vladimir Putin seeks to justify his war, to present it as a fair fight, but also consistent with the objectives of the military operation that he stated at the beginning of the war”, analyzes Isabelle Facon.

“By drawing parallels between the Second World War and the situation in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin hopes to encourage the support of the population, still very marked by the ‘Great Patriotic War’.”

Isabelle Facon, specialist in Russian security and defense policies

at franceinfo

And if Moscow does not communicate on its human and economic losses in Ukraine, “the population sees that not all of their children are coming home”, continues Isabelle Facon. May 9 could therefore be the occasion “to heroize these soldiers” and to justify the economic cost of war.

Between now and May 9, what victory could the Russian president announce? Since April 18, the war has entered a new phase with the intensification of the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine. Since then, the Russian strikes have continued in the East and in the South, but also more in the West, in particular on “railway junctions, roads, to hinder Ukrainian reinforcements”, notes Isabelle Facon. However, she believes that “Russian progress in the Donbass remains slow” and that the region is unlikely to fall by May 9.

“The most seasoned Ukrainian forces are in the Donbass and the Russian military posture has shown signs of erosion.”

Isabelle Facon, specialist in Russian security and defense policies

at franceinfo

In his update on the situation on April 10, French colonel and military historian Michel Goya estimated that “the Russian objective seemed to be to completely take over Donbass before May 9, but that Moscow also had little chance of achieving this goal by then. “We should see a level of operations on this date, the two adversaries lacking offensive capabilities to significantly modify the front line.”

On the other hand, the capture of Mariupol could be presented more as a victory on this occasion. The last Ukrainian forces are still resisting the Azovstal factory, but “Mariupol will fall”, believes Michel Goya. This will constitute a “Russian tactical victory, but with such difficulty that it already also appears as a symbolic Ukrainian victory”.

“The Donbass separatists had sought in 2014-2015 to seize Mariupol, which had resisted. Lhe fall of the city would therefore have a strong symbolic value“, continues Isabelle Facon. This capture would also allow Moscow to consolidate its advance in the coastal strip along the Sea of ​​Azov, which connects the Donbass to the Crimean peninsula. For the researcher, “May 9, Vladimir Putin may not talk about victory, but about success on the pitch and legitimacy”.