We may activate all the retraining, and we must do it, as far as we can see in the future, Quebec society will be struggling with a chronic lack of manpower, a variation of its demographic fragility. As we know, the Quebec government and a majority of businesses are facing a serious labor shortage. Could this current shortage herald, for tomorrow, a deficit in the quantity of citizens required for a harmonious internal and external deployment, both of which are essential to the vitality of social balances, the economy and the culture of Quebec?
Lack of manpower, lack of citizens? The question must be asked.
It is incorrect to claim that the labor shortage is of the same order in Quebec as elsewhere in North America. The difference is in the expected population growth by 2050: over 60, 20, 9 and 5 million citizens respectively for the United States, Mexico, Canada and Ontario compared to just over half -million for Quebec. In 2045, the population of Ontario could total 20 million people, that of Quebec, just under 10 million.
Our neighbors and main economic partners will have reserves for the renewal and enrichment of their workforce in the public and private sectors. This will not be the case for Quebec. Should we take note without more, or push further the analysis relating to our demographic future? Has the time come to create a commission of inquiry, as we have done in the past, to shed light on our future in terms of education, health and social welfare, language policy, the relationship between Aboriginals and certain public services, freedom of association, etc.
Know our needs
The mandate of this commission could include the following subjects:
1.analysis of the demographic needs of Quebec between now and the middle of the century. The accelerated aging of its population and the continued decline in the population of working age combined with the need to produce economic, ecological, social and cultural goods and services would be taken into account;
2. analysis of the demographic needs of the regions, of each of them, whose development will not take place without a critical mass of citizens;
3. evaluation of the expected share of advanced technologies in Québec production to ensure maintenance, or even growth, of the activity rate in the coming decades;
4. finally, the examination of the causes of the departure, 18 months after their arrival, of immigrants who come to Quebec and review of our reception systems including the offer of francization, which must become, in quantity and quality, the one of our most advanced and best funded policies;
5. and finally, the analysis of the foreseeable effects of low, medium or high population growth.
Speaking examples
If the proportion of seniors (65 years and over) is currently 20% and totals 1.7 million Quebecers, it will gradually increase to 27% in 2050, to total 2.6 million Quebecers. What workforce will we need to provide these seniors with the home or institutional services required by their situation?
What are the critical masses of citizens required by 2050 for the deployment of a strong economic, social and cultural life in the regions of Quebec? To ensure that each region remains viable, dynamic and attractive.
A population policy?
At the end of the commission’s work, Québec would have data relating to its future demographic situation, elements of a possible Québec population policy. In doing so, Quebec would join many European countries, notably Germany and France, which are continuing this research concerning them.
If nothing is done to build the future differently, we must fear the weakening of a society diminished by its demographic weakness and its aging; fear the loss of the dynamism that has carried its momentum over the past half-century. Throughout its contemporary history, Quebec has found, in self-research, knowledge of best practices and concerted action, the levers of its lasting affirmation. These convergent approaches have served him well. He must urgently revive them in order to consolidate his primordial wealth, his human wealth.