On all sides of this race for the leadership of the Conservative Party – the third in five years, need we remind you? –, the question that currently arises is: who can stop Pierre Poilievre? Or its variant: Will Poilievre win on the first ballot?
Published on 1er may
For several weeks now, the member for Carleton has been attracting crowds. Sometimes even more than a thousand people – the kind of crowd you sometimes see in general elections, but certainly not in a leadership contest.
Of course, the eventual success of a campaign cannot be judged solely on the basis of the crowds a candidate can draw. And it is too early to make predictions, among other things because the debates between the candidates have not yet taken place.
Nevertheless… Poilievre is considered in all camps as in the first position and it is believed that his campaign is the best run.
A small example: after the candidate’s speech, people line up to take a selfie with Mr. Poilievre. So we have plenty of time to talk to them and get them to sign Conservative Party membership cards.
And the sale of membership cards is the sinews of war in this race. You will have to be a member of the party on June 3 to be able to vote.
But while everyone agrees Poilievre is ahead, there is no consensus on who would be second.
Jean Charest should be, if only for his notoriety. He was already leader of this party, even if it was a quarter of a century ago, and when he was in Quebec, he continued to cultivate his contacts.
But in the Charest camp, we put some caveats on the recruitment of new members. Things are going quite well in the Maritimes, they say. In Quebec, former members of the PLQ have returned to help Mr. Charest and he has the support of the best party organizer in Quebec in Alain Rayes. But it is also said that it is more difficult than expected in Ontario and the West is clearly won over to Pierre Poilievre.
In fact, it’s hard to say who is second in the race until you see how many new members will have been recruited.
But many people say we really need to watch Ontarian Patrick Brown, currently mayor of Brampton, an excellent organizer who proved it by being elected leader of the Ontario Conservative Party, after a lackluster career as a rear MP -ban in Ottawa.
His specialty is recruiting people from ethnic communities, and he is particularly good at it, leading observers to say that he is running a campaign “like a submarine”, the real size of which will not be seen until once the mission is complete and he emerges from the water.
And we shouldn’t forget Leslyn Lewis, who surprised everyone with nearly 25% of the vote at the congress that elected Erin O’Toole in 2020.
She is now a Conservative MP and remains the leading spokesperson for the pro-life movement and the religious right in general within the Conservative Party.
As it is a preferential ballot, you only vote once, indicating your first choice, your second, and so on. We cannot therefore witness what we saw in the congresses of not so long ago, that is to say that a candidate officially rallies to another and goes to join him.
But we can think that most of those who have chosen Mr. Brown will end up with Mr. Charest, while those who support Mr.me Lewis (along with other pro-life candidates) will have Mr. Poilievre as his second choice. Even if he defines himself today as pro-choice, he has already been opposed to abortion.
There is a little over a month left to sign membership cards that will allow voting by mail in August and September. Nothing is decided, but there seems to be a clear advantage for Pierre Poilievre at this time.
Mr. Poilievre is, by far, the one with the most frequent and effective presence on social networks, which are increasingly the best way to reach members of a political formation. Mr. Charest is only beginning to use the new media and campaigns above all as if it were a general election. Which means he gives media interviews more than he makes targeted calls to party members.
To this, Mr. Charest replies that he was often beaten in the polls to win on polling day. Possible, but the fact remains that this election is very different from all those in which he has participated before.