Cases still on the rise in the United States

In the United States, where we are approaching the million deaths due to COVID-19, the number of cases continues to increase. The northeastern regions of the country as well as Puerto Rico are particularly affected.

Lila Dussault
The Press

Puerto Rico, an unincorporated territory of the United States, leads the list of new COVID-19 infections, with an average of 109 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the past 7 days, according to data from the New York Times May 2¹. That’s a 201% increase over 7 days. On the Caribbean island, hospitalizations are also up 105%.

Next on the list are New England states, such as Vermont, Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts, and Maine.

Tracking the course of the disease has become complicated, however, experts say.

“There, as here, the PCR tests are not openly accessible, and several places where you could get tested have reduced their availability or closed”, explains the D^r Matthew Oughton, infectious disease specialist at McGill University. In this sense, the number of new daily cases is not representative of reality.

“It is much more difficult to follow the evolution this time, adds the D^D Jennifer Nuzzo, epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University. The majority of people are now diagnosed through home tests. »

More infected or more screened?

The regions where the virus had circulated less, due to the more important prevention measures, would experience a greater increase in cases this time around, underline the two experts.

“Places that have been more infected before have more natural immunity and have become more resistant,” says Dr.^r Oughton. “And this, even if the protection linked to prior infections declines over time,” he adds.

But other factors could also play a role, warns the epidemiologist. For example, residents of some states may be more likely to get tested and report positive tests than others.

“It’s harder to miss when people get really sick,” she says, “but as you build up more and more immunity, you see fewer people who are really sick. So we may be missing data, which is increasingly biased. »

Another factor that could influence the statistics: the lack of access to free testing for people not covered by insurance since the government stopped funding it at the end of March.

Note that Puerto Rico’s health system is independent from the rest of the United States, so screening and data management may also differ from the rest of the country.

To get a better overall view of the number of infections, other data must be used, argues the D^r Oughton. Among the options, tracing COVID-19 in urban wastewater.

In the city of Burlington²for example, the level of virus genomes found in sewage has indeed increased substantially in recent weeks, but the number is not as high as in January 2022, at the height of the Omicron wave.

“What we are seeing at the moment is very different than during the wave of BA.1, which looked like a skyscraper – it went up very quickly and it came down just as quickly, recalls the D^D Nuzzo. Now, the climbs are much slower, and we can already see that in some places it is starting to slow down. »

The slowdown continues in Quebec

COVID-19 continues to lose ground in Quebec, where a drop of 12 hospitalizations is reported, as well as 3 new deaths.

These deaths bring the daily average calculated over seven days to 19. The trend is down 24% over one week. The 2,170 people currently hospitalized also represent a decrease of 8% over one week.

In intensive care, the 78 patients represent an increase of 3 compared to the previous day. On the other hand, the trend is nevertheless down 9% over one week.

The 906 new cases reported on Monday bring the daily average to 1,531. The trend is thus down 27% over one week. These numbers likely reflect only a portion of total infections, due to limited access to PCR testing.

With Pierre-André Normandin, The Press