Presidential | Macron against Le Pen, the recovery

(Paris) The French go to the polls this Sunday for the second round of the presidential election. Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected, as the polls predict? Or will we witness the Marine Le Pen surprise? What can we learn from the campaign between the two rounds which has just ended? The Press takes stock as voting begins.

Jean-Christophe Laurence
The Press

Tiredness

Is it due to the personalities of the two candidates? To their programs? In the general context? Still, this campaign between the two rounds did not unleash passions. Abstention in the first round was 26% – almost a record – and we do not announce much better for the second. As for the televised debate, it only attracted 15.6 million viewers, 1 million less than in 2017 and very far from the 30 million of 1981 during the debate between Valéry Giscard d’Estaing and François Mitterrand. “Whether at the ballot box or behind the screens, we can clearly feel that presidential elections are finding it increasingly difficult to arouse the interest, involvement and commitment of citizens”, slice Olivier Ihl, professor of politics at the University of Grenoble. According to the expert, this “fundamental dynamic” is explained by a “wear and tear of the institutions” of the V^and Republic, combined with a particular situation (COVID-19, war in Ukraine) and a general weariness of the French. “People have their minds elsewhere. They have somewhat lost the taste for political questions. »

out of the woods

Each had campaigned rather under the radar until the first round on April 10. He because too busy managing the war in Ukraine, she because of quiet field work. But the second round was another story. For better and for worse, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen jumped into the ring with both feet to sell their diametrically opposed programs. Europeanism and multilateralism for him. Sovereignty and identity withdrawal for her. “This between-two-round campaign forced them to come out of the woods,” summarizes Caroline Vigoureux, political journalist at opinion. I think Wednesday’s debate especially had this role of revealing who they really were. We saw in Macron a candidate who mastered his files, who emerged from several crises, even if it meant having this more technocratic and distant side. We saw in Marine Le Pen a populist candidate, who still has shortcomings in the way she defends her ideas. She had to expose herself more, which hit her with difficulties and made her lose a few points…”

Can Marine Le Pen win?

Unlikely. So far, all the polls give Emmanuel Macron the winner with more or less 53% of the vote. The margin is however tighter than in 2017, when “Manu” won by a comfortable score of 66% against 34%. Marine Le Pen has a meager reservoir of votes (7% of Éric Zemmour’s electorate). But she can still take advantage of a strong abstention from the left-wing electorate who would have potentially fallen back on Emmanuel Macron (see next capsule). “It is not enough that M^me Le Pen arouses support. His opponent must also lose mobilization, ”sums up Olivier Ihl. This scenario is possible if the polls are too advantageous for Macron, adds political scientist Jean Petaux. “If everyone says it’s won for Macron, part of the non-Macronist electorate who would have mobilized to block Marine Le Pen could simply decide to stay at home,” he said, referring to a “inverted self-fulfilling prophecy”. Macron was also so dominant during the debate that it could backfire. “If the media repeats for three days that he was arrogant, it can awaken negative traits. In France, we hate those who succeed. It’s completely silly. It’s like blaming Mbappé or Benzema [deux vedettes du soccer français] to score goals. »

The key is on the left

How will the 7.7 million left-wing voters who voted for Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the first round be distributed? That’s the whole question. According to the polls, 24% could refer to Marine Le Pen, 33% could abstain or vote white and 43% could vote Macron to block the far right. But nothing excludes a last minute demobilization in this group if the victory of Macron seems acquired.

“If the 43% who are preparing to vote Macron fall in favor of abstention, at some point you have a tipping point and it is Le Pen who wins”, slices political scientist Thomas Guénolé. An unlikely scenario, but possible, given the unpredictability of this electorate, made up of Socialists, Greens, Melenchonists and Communists. “We see that it is quite heterogeneous, with an electoral behavior that is not uniform. They will each go in different directions,” explains Caroline Vigoureux.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon prime minister?

The presidential election is not played that, already, all eyes are on the legislative elections in June. This “third round”, as some call it, will complete the composition of the French political landscape for the next five years. Eliminated in the first round with 22% of the vote, barely 400,000 less than Marine Le Pen, the candidate of La France insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, called this week for an alliance on the left which could give the majority to his party. and allow him to claim the post of Prime Minister. “It’s very ambitious. He wants to strike the iron when it is hot. It’s a clever move on his part, ”said Caroline Vigoureux. Clever, but unlikely. This “popular left front” would have to win 377 seats out of 577, a considerable challenge. “For this strategy to work, it would suppose that the lists of La France insoumise are supported by all the other left formations, observes Olivier Ihl. However, we know that environmentalists and socialists will find it very difficult to form an alliance with Jean-Luc Mélenchon. It’s hardly believable. It is more likely that the left will be as divided for the legislative elections as it was for the first round. »