“What’s on Vladimir Putin’s mind?”, questioned Saturday, April 23 on franceinfo Pierre Servent, specialist in defense issues and Bertrand Badie, professor emeritus at Sciences Po and specialist in international relations. The two experts agree to qualify the strategy of the Russian president in Ukraine “of hegemony”while the Russian army announced on Friday that it wanted “to establish a secure territorial continuity up to the Crimea”which Russia annexed in 2014.
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According to Pierre Servent, there is indeed this “first objective” who is from “from Crimea, to completely privatize the Sea of Azov” and establish “a territorial continuum up to the Donbass not yet conquered”. The specialist warned of Vladimir Putin’s desire to “push to Odessa”in the South of Ukraine, to connect Transnistria, this pro-Russian separatist territory located in the East of Moldova.
“This bet on territorial continuity up to Transnistria is an extremely dangerous bet”reacted for his part Bertrand Badie. “It is a deadly bet, because it is extremely costly in human lives and because it comes to draw a geography which in the long term risks being unbearable for the Western powers”he added, considering that “if, truly, this is the project, it’s a crazy project”.
War in Ukraine ➡️ “I greatly admire those who explain to us that all of this will end in six months”, mocks Pierre Servent. “I am in favor of arming the Ukrainians. As long as the strong, Russia, does not win not, he loses. As long as the weak hold on, he wins.” pic.twitter.com/YzAb0gyThR
— franceinfo (@franceinfo) April 23, 2022
Pierre Servent also said to himself “convinced” that this project will not stop there, that Vladimir Putin “remains on its initial war aim” : “taking over all of Ukraine”. “My conviction is that he has not changed his strategic goal, he has only changed his tactics”he assured, referring to “the salami tactic” is “take Ukraine” by “slice by slice”.
“As Putin broke his teeth, because his military apparatus was absolutely not adapted to the Ukrainian situation, he switched his efforts and his forces back to the Donbass, but my conviction is that his ambition remains to overwhelm totally Ukraine one way or another.”
Peter Serveat franceinfo
For Bertrand Badie, “Putin’s war is a fundamentally reactionary war” with a “little flavor of 19th century”. The international relations expert thus dismissed the American strategy back to back, based on the fact that “to dominate the world goes through networks and virtual means”to that of Russia, which “ankylosis in its territorial weight”.
“But behind the hegemonic project, is it a question of showing that Russia is still playing in the 1st division, that it has the capacity of a superpower?”he wondered, seeing in it a “complete failure”. He thus warned against the risk of a “endless escalation” and “extremely dangerous”considering that “the dictator will not let go and will want to consolidate his image”. “We are faced with an impossible dilemma”, he said. According to him, “we are in a time when we no longer win wars” and “Only a political solution can lead to an exit” of this war.
Find the full interview with Pierre Servent and Bertrand Badie against Myriam Encoua and Ersin Leibowitz in the video below.