The concept of the “hydrogen economy” surfaced during the energy crisis of the 1970s. It evoked an economy that could replace that of oil by producing fuels that would emit only water vapor. . Today, the craze is led by the fight against climate change and energy independence.
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In its recent budget, the Quebec government provides $152 million over the next five years to support the deployment of the first green hydrogen and bioenergy strategy. At present, however, the sector’s decarbonization potential is limited: costs are high and supply volumes are limited due to inefficient processes.
By 2050, hydrogen will remain “a relatively small portion of the overall energy balance (about 3% of total consumption)” due to technical and economic barriers, according to a study prepared for the Government of Quebec1.
This result is in line with those of the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which estimates that hydrogen will represent at best 2.1%, in 2050, and 5.1%, in 2100, of the global energy balance.
In light of these results, the political and media enthusiasm seems disproportionate. A call to reality is essential.
Green hydrogen will play a role in the energy transition, but for its contribution to decarbonization to be optimal, the premises for the development of the sector and the expectations must be based on current and future technical knowledge validated by science, on the energy consumption choices and levels of social acceptability in the various constraints related to energy infrastructure. Four lines of thought are proposed here to better present the facts.
Gray hydrogen dominates the markets
Like electricity, hydrogen is an energy carrier that can be produced from different energy sources. Today, around 99% of the world’s hydrogen is produced from hydrocarbons, mainly natural gas and coal, which emit greenhouse gases (GHG) during the manufacturing process. There is no official classification of its carbon footprint, but that made from hydrocarbons is often classified as “grey hydrogen”. The latter can become “blue hydrogen” if the carbon is captured and sequestered. “Green hydrogen” refers to that made from the electrolysis of water using renewable electricity. These new processes make it possible to avoid a large part of the emissions, but represent less than 1% of the current world production.
Green Hydrogen Scaling Challenge
Depending on how green hydrogen is used, electricity generation needs can be 2 to 14 times higher compared to direct electrification solutions, which presents a challenge when electricity surpluses are already thing of the past in Quebec. Since 2020, around twenty large green hydrogen production projects have been announced around the world, representing a total of 150-200 gigawatts (about five times the hydroelectric capacity of Quebec). Scaling up green hydrogen production just to replace gray hydrogen consumption would require a huge increase in electrolyzer and renewable energy capacities. It would also require a large supply of critical and very expensive minerals often mined in geopolitically unstable regions.
High costs of green hydrogen
The cost of hydrogen varies greatly depending on the complexity of its value chain (from its source of production to its end use). By considering only raw materials and energy (therefore excluding the cost of infrastructure such as factories, electrolysers, transport pipelines, liquefaction and storage), we triple the cost of producing hydrogen when it is manufactured. from the electrolysis of water in Quebec compared to the reforming of natural gas. In some parts of the world, the cost is up to 10 times higher. This objective implies a considerable increase in the volume of production of low-emission hydrogen and a more efficient production and distribution capacity, with less energy loss and better profitability.
Target “no regrets” sectors
Many studies emphasize that care must be taken to maximize the use of green hydrogen-based fuels by focusing on “no regrets” sectors, i.e. those that are not suitable for direct use of hydrogen. electricity, such as energy-intensive industries (steel, aluminum, cement), fertilizers, and the maritime and aviation sectors. Replacing the gray hydrogen already used on the markets with green hydrogen should be a priority, as well as going through targeted strategies that promote the local production and consumption of green hydrogen in industrial clusters.
As the IPCC concludes in its most recent report, green hydrogen alone will not be able to decarbonize the economy. To maximize its contribution to decarbonization in a profitable and efficient way, the development of the sector must be part of a framework for reducing energy consumption and the circular economy.