It’s a revolution for these two northern European countries. Sweden and Finland have so far stayed away from NATO. In Finland, the debate has officially opened since Wednesday April 13 at noon and the publication of a “White Paper” on the subject which opens the way to a parliamentary discussion. According to Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, the decision will be quick, a matter of weeks and not months. Helsinki should formalize its candidacy before the NATO summit scheduled for the end of June.
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The consequence of a complete shift in public opinion in this country of 5 million inhabitants. Sanna Marin explained this on Wednesday, when she was in Sweden alongside her Swedish counterpart, Magdalena Andersson. “Everything changed when Russia invaded Ukraine.explains Sanna Marin. The mindset of both Finns and Swedes has changed drastically because of Russia’s actions, that’s very clear.”.
The opinion polls in Finland are startling. Three months ago, less than 30% of Finns were in favor of joining NATO. Today, they are 68%! Those who oppose it are only 12%. Among the elected officials, same thing, out of 200 deputies, only 12 are against according to the calculations of the Finnish media. Finland feels all the more threatened as it has a 1,350 km border with Russia.
In Sweden, the shift in public opinion is a little less drastic. Sweden has no border with Russia and the country has been militarily neutral for two centuries. But the cultural revolution is also underway among the 10 million Swedes. The hypothesis of joining NATO is now supported by 50% of the population, and opponents are less than 30%. Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, still at this joint press conference on Wednesday, confirmed that the possibility of membership is clearly on the table.
It may take a few weeks or months longer than Finland. There are elections scheduled in Sweden at the beginning of September and this will no doubt be one of the major topics of the campaign. But the two countries therefore seem set to become the 31st and 32nd members of NATO, and thus join their Baltic or Scandinavian neighbors who all belong to the Atlantic organization. Needless to say, NATO is very much in favor of this enlargement, the process of which normally takes between six and twelve months.
This is a major political failure for Vladimir Putin. Its aggression of Ukraine, officially motivated by fears of seeing kyiv join NATO, is pushing two more countries into the arms of the Atlantic defense organization. Hard to find more counterproductive. Moscow threatens Helsinki and Stockholm with “serious military and political consequences” in the event of joining NATO.
In recent days, Russian planes have already made incursions into Finnish airspace, and several ministerial sites have been the target of cyber attacks. Both countries fear reprisals, especially during the transition period, when the accession process will still be ongoing. But these threats from Moscow will probably not change much: the tide has turned in Finland as in Sweden. And this wind pushes towards the West.