The leader of the Coalition avenir Québec, François Legault, was proud Monday evening to be able to count on the political organizer Brigitte Legault. ” [C’est] the best… in Canada! “he argued after the announcement of the decisive victory of Shirley Dorismond in the riding of Marie-Victorin.
The director general of the CAQ has put the gum to confiscate the stronghold of the Parti Québécois. Some 400 activists – supported from time to time by ministers and deputies – managed to identify CAQ supporters, then convince them, sometimes with pre-recorded messages from Mr. Legault, to take a moment to “vote Shirley less than six months before the general elections. They brought no less than a hundred Longueuil residents to their polling station, while listening to their concerns about the rising cost of living and housing costs.
Shirley Dorismond was elected to the National Assembly with a majority of 797 votes over her PQ opponent, Pierre Nantel (2and), and 4,567 votes over her liberal opponent, Émilie Nollet (5and). “I go down in history in Marie-Victorin, where I grew up,” repeated the nurse to the thirty people gathered in the Milan Pizzeria on Monday evening.
” [Les caquistes] have gone all out,” underlines political scientist Thierry Giasson. According to him, the electoral machine developed by the CAQ over the past 10 years has nothing to envy to those of the old parties. “They deployed a field campaign long before he triggered [la partielle] moreover,” adds the director of the Political Communication Research Group (GRCP).
A slap to the PQ
The leader of the PQ, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, is betting that the CAQ will not be able to devote as much energy to preserving Marie-Victorin during the national election campaign. Neither does the PQ, nuance Thierry Giasson, according to whom the score of 30.07% recorded Monday evening was also “artificially inflated” by resources from outside the South Shore in the Montreal region – who in particular allowed to order at least three surveys.
While projecting his gaze on the rematch of October 3, Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon also put into perspective the slap received Monday evening by the PQ: Pierre Nantel obtained 30.07% of the votes, compared to 30.82% for Catherine Fournier in 2018 (-0.75 points). “You can in your communication of defeat evoke a moral victory, but the result remains the same, the consequence is irremediable, you cannot modify it: you have lost”, says Thierry Giasson coldly.
” [Les péquistes] are doing better than all the other political formations [d’opposition] ”, nuances the holder of the Canada Research Chair in Quebec and Canadian Studies, Alain-G. Gagnon. “Of course they have a big battle to fight” on October 3, he continues.
A base to expand at QS
Unlike the CAQ and the PQ, the Québec solidaire campaign team had difficulty identifying their supporters and then convincing them to vote in Marie-Victorin.
The score recorded by QS, who finished at 3and row Monday evening, is no stranger to the absence of polling stations on student campuses during the by-elections, spokesman Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois said on Tuesday – which raised eyebrows Thierry Giasson. “If you are building a general campaign on the fact that there are structures that facilitate student voting in CEGEPs and universities, that seems a bit thin to me as a logistical plan for mobilization, then for getting out of the vote. It must be one element among others, but it shouldn’t be just about that that you win an election, ”argues the professor at Laval University.
The results of the by-election in Marie-Victorin also recall the importance for the left-wing party to broaden its electorate, failing which it is condemned to opposition, according to Thierry Giasson. “They don’t talk to young people, they talk to some young people on the left, who live with eco-anxiety, then who have an interest in sovereignty, but who also have a cosmopolitan outlook on life,” he explains before to add: “It’s still quite tucked away. »
political orphans
The Conservative Party of Quebec has been able to attract the “listening” of the electorate, including those who are fed up with the COVID-19 pandemic and health measures. The day after his “honorable score” in Marie-Victorin, the leader of the PCQ, Éric Duhaime, won his ticket to the debate of leaders of Radio-Canada. “We just moved up to the major leagues! he congratulated himself.
However, the PCQ “remains the party of a single issue”, namely the end of the “health dictatorship”, mentions Thierry Giasson as the general elections approach. “It’s running a little empty. […] Mr. Duhaime will have to start talking about the other angles of his program”, he said, before describing Éric Duhaime as a man who is both “brilliant” and “a little dangerous”.
Political “orphans” and other Quebecers “ready to try something else” who currently support the PCQ “will probably find that the party has a rather poor program in terms of social measures, for example,” continues Alain-G. Gagnon. “It’s a party that is more interested in economic development in itself and for itself, and therefore it could cool the support of Quebecers in the medium term”, specifies the professor at UQAM.
Turmoil at the PLQ
The Liberal leader, Dominique Anglade, explained the plummeting of the PLQ, from 4and at 5and rank, in Marie-Victorin by the strong abstention of liberal voters. Professor Thierry Giasson submits “another hypothesis”: “there are liberals or liberal voters in Marie-Victorin who voted for the CAQ”. If his hypothesis turns out to be correct, the fall will be full of “bad news” for the PLQ, he predicts, while wondering: “Will Mme Anglade will be there in six months to lead the Liberal campaign? »
For political scientist Alain-G. Gagnon, a “household” is essential in the political program of the PLQ, which is more after the attempt of nationalist turn of Dominique Anglade. In addition to not having gained him support in the French-speaking electorate, he lost it in the English-speaking electorate. ” [Les libéraux] are caught between a rock and a hard place, that is, they want to defend human rights and freedoms, but at the same time, they must also defend collective rights or the rights of the Francophone community within the Canadian federation,” he explains. “They are really in a very, very difficult situation. I don’t know how M.me Anglade can get out of this quagmire. »