Beyond a French election, the second round of the presidential election which will oppose, on April 24, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will take place in a European and international landscape full of perils.
The candidate of the National Rally today represents the vanguard of a vast movement of reaction against Europe and globalization. But it is also a “classist” movement, which cleverly hides its (past?) identity excesses, which highlights the economic question and the impoverishment – real or alleged – of the working classes.
Faced with the internationalist Macron, optimistic about the virtues of liberal economic openness, who represents “France from above”, she effectively embodies mistrust and withdrawal in the face of a globalization that has not borne fruit. for everyone.
Weighing heavily on this election campaign, there is also the question of war. For nearly two months that it lasts and upsets the geopolitical order, it has often been repeated that Putin “got it all wrong”. Because his blitzkrieg quickly got bogged down. Because he counted on a West paralyzed, divided and incapable of reacting.
In the short term, it is undeniable that the Russian dictator was at his expense. His army on the ground proved to be a paper tiger, staggeringly unprepared and amateurish. The Western reaction was strong and rapid: spontaneous European solidarity with the Ukrainians, material and military aid, economic sanctions.
But beyond that, in the medium and long term, the maintenance of this European commitment (and that, in parallel, of the United States) remains questionable.
The firmness of the European Union vis-à-vis Moscow, in the supply and delivery of aid, in the application of sanctions… will this firmness be maintained? In particular if the sanctions should be extended to block Russian gas? At the cost of an economic recession, an explosion in energy prices, general inflation – including for food?
This is where the Le Pen factor comes in and what it represents politically and diplomatically.
Marine Le Pen, like other right-wing populist leaders in Europe, has a marked affection for the man from Moscow. She is a pro-Russian, who over the years has multiplied the marks of allegiance and admiration for Putin, showing off in the Kremlin with him in the middle of the 2017 presidential campaign.
Her “backpedaling” over the past few days in the face of the atrocities in Boutcha and Kramatorsk was lip service (“yes, these are war crimes”), without her being able – or willing – to clearly name the aggressor and the perpetrator. assaulted!
Half a century ago, we found a Communist International as Moscow’s “fifth column” in European societies (French, Italian, Spanish Communist Party); Since the 2010s, the new “international” — despite an apparent paradox — has been made up of far-right nationalists: Putin’s ideological-strategic little brothers and sisters.
Their names: Le Pen, Salvini, Orbán… Viktor Orbán, Hungarian Prime Minister, was triumphantly re-elected a week ago, in a “democracy” that is admittedly wobbly and manipulated, but where he retains undeniable popular support.
In other words: there is – and the French presidential election is a crucial test of this trend – a “strategic reservoir” in public opinion and European political configurations. This reservoir can undermine, even thwart the will, shown until now, to resist Moscow’s politico-military intrigues.
Concretely, there is in France a large part, perhaps a majority, of the opinion for whom the need to defend Ukraine and to help it materially would quickly take second place in the face of questions of bread and butter, and who would oppose in any case the slightest personal sacrifice for this cause.
To the votes of Le Pen and Zemmour combined (30%), we can add here those of Mélenchon who, despite his profound differences, has long converged with them on the Russian question. And we arrive at a total of 52%.
The election of Marine Le Pen would be a disaster for Western strategy against Putin.
François Brousseau is an international affairs columnist at Ici Radio-Canada. [email protected]