The Trudeau government’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan should not confuse those who advocate for climate justice. Its emissions reduction target (-40% compared to 2005 levels) is well below what is recommended by the last IPCC report for Canada (-57% for the same period). In addition, this plan provides that the two main sectors responsible for GHGs in Canada (the fossil fuel industry and transportation) will not have to meet the overall target of the plan. From the point of view of serious climate reality, this plan is only “clean air”, as its subtitle so aptly puts it.
Federal experts have recognized that, despite the appearances of this plan, the production of hydrocarbons will increase, while the IPCC has just said that their use should fall by 60% for oil and 45% for gas. by 2050. According to the Cascade Institute, Canada’s fossil fuel production forecast alone by 2050 represents 16% of the planet’s remaining carbon budget. The major Canadian banks intend to contribute to this growth in emissions, since they have increased their investments in fossil fuels by 70% in 2021.
Recognizing Canada’s wealth and historical responsibility, plans should instead be made to shut down the oil and gas industry by 2034, as a recent study by the University of Manchester recommends. From a social point of view, the longer we wait to reconvert this sector, the more brutal the shock will be for workers.
Betting on hypothetical technologies
While the latest IPCC report urges us to proceed with an “immediate and drastic reduction” of emissions by prioritizing the fossil sector, the Guilbeault plan only speaks of improving the “carbon competitiveness” of the sector in order to remain “competitive” on “the world market”. Reducing the “carbon intensity” of each barrel of oil will not decrease production, but on the contrary will guarantee its expansion, as is the rebound effect common in our capitalist economy. This is also what has been happening since 2005, when the 20% reduction in carbon intensity of the sector accompanied a 137% growth in emissions.
If the plan evokes the idea of “capping emissions” from the sector, no target or specific means have yet been clearly announced to respect it. Moreover, it is clearly stated that this cap is not intended “to bring about reductions in production”. It is therefore very likely, as the industry wants, that emissions related to the combustion of fossil fuels, although the most significant and inherent to their use, will be excluded from this ceiling. Yet it is precisely by this means that the federal government has the constitutional power to force the gradual closure of the industry, contrary to what Mr. Guilbeault recently claimed.
On the contrary, the government explicitly says that it will work to “maximize opportunities for continued investment in the sector”. Moreover, by avoiding serious constraints on the transportation sector and by not planning any additional investment for public transit, the federal government is guaranteeing oil companies a source of flow for their products.
Clearly, the promises of reducing emissions from the fossil sector are all based on hypothetical carbon capture and storage technologies. With public money, the government will finance investments in this technology, which has not been proven at all, for the benefit of private industry.
Moreover, as Tristan Goodman, one of the leaders of the Canadian fossil industry, so aptly put it, carbon capture and the rhetoric of “carbon neutrality” constitute the basis of the “renaissance” of the oil and gas sector. Claiming to produce “green” or “carbon neutral” oil is tantamount to wanting to wage war without killing anyone. In short, this plan is above all the green guarantee of a sector in crisis of legitimacy, rather than a real plan to reduce GHG emissions.
Against the privatization of our future
Let’s be clear: the ecological crisis is not a business opportunity. We are faced with a historical dilemma which opposes the survival of a system which generates and protects the extreme wealth of a handful of individuals to the preservation of the conditions of human life on Earth.
Due to its responsibility and its titanic financial means, the oil and gas sector is the first to have to completely convert. As this conversion goes against his interests, we will have to force his hand and organize against this privatization of our future. This is the whole point of the political struggles to be waged.
Fortunately, young people are not fooled by Minister Guilbeault’s parades: already, strike movements in favor of the climate are resuming and will intensify. We know it will take more springs to deliver climate justice.