Barbados sounds the alarm
PHOTO DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS, FRANCE-PRESS AGENCY
Mia Amor Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados, speaking at COP26, Tuesday
“Code red. Code red for the G7 countries, code red, code red for the G20 ”, launched the Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Amor Mottley, during her address to world leaders gathered at the opening of COP26 on Monday. A hard-hitting eight-minute speech that set the tone from the start of this long-awaited conference. “How many additional images and voices do we have to see on these screens without being able to act? Are we so blind and stubborn that we are no longer able to understand the tears of humanity? ”
Watch Mia Amor Mottley’s speech
The good news
A few announcements particularly received attention during the week. More than 80 countries, including Canada, have agreed to reduce their methane emissions by 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. Canada and 22 other nations have also signed an agreement to end international public financing of fossil fuels. “What strikes me the most so far is that we are finally starting to talk about the elephant in the room: fossil fuels,” notes Caroline Brouillette, climate policy analyst at the Climate Action Network. It was necessary and urgent that we do it. ”
The less good news
A hundred countries, including Canada, announced on Tuesday an agreement to end deforestation by 2030. Forests, remember, play an essential role in absorbing a significant amount of CO2 released by human activities. However, the equivalent of 27 forest football fields would be destroyed every minute on a global scale. Environmental groups nevertheless remain skeptical of these commitments which had already been made in the past. And suddenly, Indonesia rejected Thursday the agreement announced two days earlier. “The massive development of the era of President Jokowi [Joko Widodo] cannot stop in the name of carbon emissions and deforestation, ”Indonesia’s Environment and Forestry Minister Siti Nurbaya Bakar wrote on Twitter.
The bad news
Global CO emissions2 are on the rise again this year after a 5.4% decline in 2020 due to the pandemic. On Wednesday, the Global Carbon Project announced that 2021 emissions are expected to rebound 4.9%. At this rate, the carbon budget still available to limit global warming to 1.5 ° C will be exhausted in 10 years. “Everyone wants to keep the dream of [limiter le réchauffement à 1,5 °C]. In every sense of the word, you’re kidding yourself if you think we’re headed for 1.5 ° C. So why this optimism? Glen Peters, director of research at the Center for International Climate Research, wrote on Twitter. “We are not aligned to limit warming to 1.5 ° C,” confirms Damon Matthews to Press. At the time of this writing, there were 10 years, 5 months, 16 days and 21 hours left before exhausting the carbon budget still available, according to the climate clock developed by the professor at Concordia University. Matthews argues that the target can still be met, but it will require raising the targets and aiming for carbon neutrality in 2040, not 2050, as planned. “There are two truths that I like to remember, adds Caroline Brouillette. We are moving forward, but too late and too slowly. ”
Check out Damon Matthews’ Climate Clock
The number to take with a grain of salt
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the commitments made so far at COP26 would limit global warming to 1.8 ° C by 2100. An announcement that has aroused some skepticism among scientists . Several of these commitments must be ratified by the Parliaments of many countries, rightly note the researchers of Climate Analytics. In addition, the IEA’s calculations were made on the basis of promises to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. However, the reduction targets by 2030 will have to be raised to achieve the 2050 objectives. “It is as if someone said that he was going to do a marathon, but that he had never trained for it, illustrious Patrick Bonin, responsible for the Climate-Energy campaign at Greenpace Canada. It will be difficult to reach our 2050 goals if we don’t do enough by 2030. ”
“Our leaders are not showing the right path,” laments Greta Thunberg
Thousands of young people marched through the streets of Glasgow on Friday to protest the inaction of world leaders in the face of the climate emergency. Sweden’s Greta Thunberg claimed that COP26 was a “failure”, describing the conference as “a celebration of business as usual and blah ”. “Our leaders are not showing the right path. This is what leadership looks like, ”she added, pointing to the crowd. A second event is also on the program this Saturday.
Vulnerable countries
On Wednesday, the countries most vulnerable to climate change called again for help from the wealthiest nations. In 2009, industrialized countries pledged to provide funding of $ 100 billion per year starting in 2020 to help developing countries. However, this goal would only be achieved in 2023. In the meantime, the poorest nations plead that the sum of 100 billion will be clearly insufficient and demand a new agreement. According to Caroline Brouillette, of the Climate Action Network, trillions of dollars will have to be released for the countries that will be hardest hit by climate change.
A new agreement in sight?
There is still a week left at the 26e climate conference and this will be crucial. If the 2015 conference resulted in the Paris agreement, that of Glasgow should in principle make it possible to write the instruction manual for this agreement. Because once the targets are set, it is necessary to determine how to reach them. “I expect the negotiations to continue until the last minute,” explains Caroline Brouillette. COP26 will have to demonstrate how the parties will go about keeping the 1.5 ° C target alive. Professor Damon Matthews agrees the situation is “very frustrating.” “We could have acted before, we didn’t. It’s still possible to get there, but it’s going to take more than words. ”
With Agence France-Presse
Consult the COP26 program