Stop or again? The Hungarians vote, Sunday, April 3, on the occasion of the legislative elections. Nationalist and conservative Prime Minister Viktor Orban, in power for twelve years, is the favorite in opinion polls, but is facing a united opposition for the first time.
Franceinfo gives you the four keys to the ballot, whose campaign was, like the presidential election in France, shaken up by the war in Ukraine.
1A united opposition for the first time
Aged 49 and a claimed Catholic, Peter Marki-Zay has a heavy task: to bring together six heterogeneous parties behind him, whether they are right-wing, social democrats or ecologists. United by their will to bring down “the authoritarian” Viktor Orban, they call for an end to “illiberalism”a vaporous concept used by the Prime Minister to justify his numerous attacks on democracy since 2010.
A convinced pro-European and supporter of the adoption of the euro, Peter Marki-Zay passed through the ranks of Viktor Orban’s party, Fidesz. He is also the mayor of a provincial town, which allowed him not to be accused of incarnating the elites against the people.
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The choice “has never been so easy”, insists Peter Marki-Zay regularly during this campaign. We have to do “that of Europe, not the East”he claims in reference to the rapprochement with Moscow and Beijing made by the outgoing Prime Minister, who is very critical of the European Union.
2A well-oiled machine behind Viktor Orban
Faced with a united opposition, Viktor Orban could be worried. Especially since the economic situation is alarming: inflation has exceeded 7% in one year, and certain basic products, such as oil and flour, have even seen their prices increase by 20%. To deal with it, the outgoing Prime Minister has multiplied announcements in an emergency: increase in the minimum wage, freezing of the price of gasoline and basic foodstuffs until after the election.
To achieve his goal of remaining four more years at the head of the country, the sovereignist leader can count on a powerful conglomerate of public media, which openly campaign in his favor, says The world. These do not hesitate to broadcast the blunders of the opponents on a loop, when they do not suggest that they are bought by Brussels or by the American billionaire George Soros, pet peeve of the Hungarian Prime Minister.
3A campaign disrupted by the war in Ukraine
Viktor Orban, who had grown closer to Vladimir Putin in recent years, took a neutral stance during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While welcoming refugees, Budapest refuses to send military aid to kyiv and has banned the transfer of lethal weapons through its territory, in the name of “security” of the Hungarians.
This attitude earned him the fury of Volodymyr Zelensky. “Listen, Viktor, do you know what is happening in Mariupol? You have to decide once and for all which side you are on”thus launched the Ukrainian president to the Hungarian sovereigntist in a video call broadcast on March 24 during a summit of the 27 in Brussels.
Peter Marki-Zay obviously took advantage of the situation to pin “isolation” of his rival, portrayed “as the last ally of Putin in the EU and NATO”. Pro-Orban media were quick to hit back, saying the opposition leader would be ready to deploy troops to Ukraine. Distorted remarks, assured Peter Marki-Zay, but the damage was done: his firm support for NATO policy was immediately qualified as “dangerous”.
4Risks of fraud
Customary of arm wrestling with the EU, Viktor Orban has introduced legislative changes over the course of his mandates accused of favoring his party to the detriment of other formations, describes Euronews.
Shortly after his return to power in 2010, the leader passed two laws in quick succession granting the many people of Hungarian origin living outside the country’s nationality… and the right to vote, including by post. More recently, an amendment changed the definition of the place of residence, which can now be a simple contact address, not guaranteeing that one actually lives there.
In this context, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) sent more than 200 observers to the site, an exceptional measure for an EU country – to which only Bulgaria was entitled in 2013.