President Vladimir Putin is misled by his advisers who are “afraid to tell him the truth” about his “flawed” war strategy in Ukraine where Russian troops sabotage equipment and accidentally shoot down their own plane, British intelligence and Americans.
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Close allies, whose spies work to highlight Russia’s failures and Kremlin divisions, said Putin’s advisers were ‘too scared’ to tell him the full truth about Moscow’s setbacks on the battlefield and the real impact of sanctions.
A few hours after the publication by the White House of its intelligence report on the situation in Ukraine, the head of the British intelligence agency GCHQ, Jeremy Fleming, estimated Thursday in a speech at the Australian National University of Canberra that the Russian leader had overestimated his army’s ability to win a quick victory.
“We have seen Russian soldiers – out of arms and in low morale – refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft,” Fleming said.
“And even if Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what is happening and the extent of these miscalculations must be perfectly clear to the regime,” he said.
According to Jeremy Fleming, the Russian president underestimated Ukrainian resistance, the strength of the international coalition against him and the impact of economic sanctions.
“Deceived”
The remarks echo a White House briefing on US intelligence released Wednesday. According to their information, Putin’s relations with his military personnel have deteriorated.
“We have information, which we have now made public, that (Vladimir Putin) felt cheated by the Russian military,” White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said.
In recent days, Ukrainian forces have retaken territory, including Irpin, located on the strategic outskirts of kyiv, as the Russian offensive appears to have stalled, five weeks after the start of the invasion on February 24.
The US and UK intelligence reports come as questions mount over the Russian president’s relationship with his defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, who disappeared from public view for weeks before reappearing on March 26. in a TV show.
Undated footage showed Mr Shoigu – who there referred to a finance ministry meeting the day before – chairing a meeting on defense procurement in Russia.
There is “persistent tension” between Mr Putin and the Moscow Defense Ministry, a consequence of the Russian leader’s distrust of his leadership, a senior US official in Washington has said.
Wagner Group
According to the Latvian-based Russian news site Meduza, Russian intelligence experts said that the head of the FSB’s “fifth service”, Sergei Beseda, and his deputy, Anatoly Bolukh, had both been placed under house arrest in the framework of an investigation.
FSB Dosye, an investigative site specializing in the work of the FSB, said reports of a large-scale purge within the institution were exaggerated.
Mr. Beseda was indeed questioned by investigators, but is still in office and is not under arrest, according to the site.
Mr. Bolukh was also questioned but has not been number two in the fifth service for several years, adds FSB Dosye.
Cyberattacks from Russia remain a threat for the time being, Fleming further warned: “We have seen indicators that suggest Russian cyberactors are seeking targets in countries that oppose their actions.”
On the ground in Ukraine, Moscow uses mercenaries and foreign fighters to support its own forces.
Among them is the Wagner Group, which is “shifting into high gear” after having been active in the country since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.
“The group works like a shadow branch of the Russian army”, allowing Vladimir Putin to relieve himself of responsibility for “riskier operations”, he argued.