Our parliamentary correspondent in Ottawa Marie Vastel analyzes a federal political issue to help you better understand it.
In two weeks, Jean Charest has twice broken with the positions of the party he nevertheless aspires to lead. First, by opposing the Act respecting the secularism of the State of Quebec and by promising that he would intervene in the Supreme Court, as Prime Minister, to “express himself”. Second, by pledging not to change the Liberals’ gun control measures. Positions in line with those defended during his political career, but at odds with those of the conservatives he is courting today. This could very well deprive the aspiring leader of the support he would need in this race which he was beginning with, from the outset, its share of challenges.
“It’s consistent,” observes former Conservative strategist Yan Plante, about Jean Charest’s first outings. “But it puts a few more obstacles in his way, which was already winding. »
Another obstacle: the collaboration agreement concluded between the government of Justin Trudeau and the New Democratic Party of Jagmeet Singh, which could also undermine the candidacy of the former Quebec premier. Such a “coalition” – which is not one, but which the conservatives nevertheless qualify as such – allows them to galvanize their troops, who already see Pierre Poilievre as a fighter. MP Poilievre was also quick to point out that this LPC-NDP agreement confirmed that the CPC needed a leader already elected to the Commons to stand up to it. Candidate Charest’s promise of “unity” also seems less pressing for activists. The issue of the leadership ballot box has just changed.
All conservative observers give Pierre Poilievre a good leader. To hope to beat him — and not be overtaken by the other Progressive Conservative candidate, Patrick Brown — Mr. Charest will have to fill up with a very large number of new members. What his team knows well. But he will also have to convince some of the existing members to support him too, or at the very least to give him their second choice in the preferential ballot. However, at the start of the race, Jean Charest already seems to have crossed out two clienteles.
Files that mobilize
The Legault government’s Bill 21 in Quebec City was the subject of “existential crises” within the Conservative caucus, whose Quebec elected officials made it a “matter of life or death” in December, one of they—today in the Charest camp—having threatened to leave the party if it abandoned its position of neutrality and promised to intervene immediately to support the challenge before the courts. Jean Charest does not go that far, and would only “express himself” during the ultimate appeal to the Supreme Court, his supporters argue.
Nevertheless, two Quebec elected officials, who were thinking of supporting him, were cooled when they learned of his position on Bill 21, sources revealed.
And the conservative militants of Quebec, in general nationalists, wanted the CCP not to interfere with this Quebec law. Potential supporters for whom the position of Jean Charest – more categorical than that of Justin Trudeau – could influence the vote. Especially since Pierre Poilievre has pledged to maintain the party’s promise of non-intervention (although he never said so in so many words in an interview…).
By announcing that he would not amend Bill C-71 on firearms — which all Conservative elected officials opposed in 2018, including Quebeckers who support Jean Charest — nor the Liberal decree prohibiting so-called firearms assault, it also attracted hundreds of opponents.
Gun owners would certainly not have supported the former Quebec premier who defended the defunct federal long gun registry. But now they are actively mobilizing to block his way. Guy Morin, of the group All against a Quebec firearms registry, intends to convince hundreds of owners to vote in the leadership race, as he did in 2020, which contributed to the victory of Erin O ‘Toole. Mr. Charest may also come up against gun owners in the rest of rural Canada. “The leader who wants the status quo on the firearms file, he will not be able to win,” predicts Mr. Morin, who was at the Pierre Poilievre rally in Quebec last weekend.
In the opinion of a former senior PCC strategist, Jean Charest has just “undermined his growth potential with current members” with these first two positions.
“He should have favored neutrality, the traditional positions of the party to make sure not to mobilize certain fringes”, also indicates Marc-André Leclerc, former chief of staff of Andrew Scheer. Mr. Charest, on the other hand, is in line with the party he wants to join by defending the oil industry and the construction of new pipelines.
However, he faces a resolutely right-wing and extremely popular Pierre Poilievre with the members. And to Patrick Brown, who could double it, according to some, thanks to his extensive network in cultural communities and his talents as an organizer. It remains to be seen, however, whether the allegations of sexual misconduct against Mr Brown, which he denied four years ago but which the Poilievre team have already brought to light, come to the fore again.
There are six months left in the campaign. Jean Charest still has time to present a platform more in tune with the convictions of the Conservatives. But he who had withdrawn two years ago, believing that the militants were now too far from his values, will have to act quickly to convince them that he has since moved closer to theirs. Otherwise, he risks consolidating those who accuse him of wanting to “lead a party whose DNA he is trying to alter”, predicted a strategist this week.