This is one of the major consequences of the war in Ukraine. The agricultural market is disrupted. The country is a major grain producer and the world’s fourth largest wheat exporter. Eco guest of franceinfo, Thierry Blandinières, managing director of InVivo, one of the European leaders in the sector, says to himself “very worried about the next harvest“.
The group, which has a turnover of 10 billion euros, is present in Ukraine, where it employs 350 people. “We can work in the western part of the country and we have farmer customers in front of us who want to sow (…) We have reopened our warehouses to be able to deliver to these customers, with employees who are mobilized (…) In this sense, we participates in supporting the Ukrainian population, by being present to support their agriculture“, explains Thierry Blandinières.
According to the manager, next summer will be the moment of truth: “In July, it will be difficult for the Ukrainians to collect all their harvest. We expect a reduction of at least 50% in collection if all goes well (…) That means 20 million tonnes that will leave the international market, because the majority of the volumes were intended for export.“, he explains. For the boss of InVivo, this phenomenon, combined with the fact that the Russians would keep their stock, would further push prices up.
We would take out 30% of the export volume from the world market. You can imagine the impact on prices at the start of the school year!
Thierry Blandinières, CEO of InVivoon franceinfo
The baguette, for French consumers, for example, would increase “from 10% to 15% very quickly“For several southern countries, which are heavily dependent on cereal imports, the problem would be much greater still,”when country stocks run out“.
Faced with this crisis, Europe wants to produce more. According to Thierry Blandinières, this is the solution: “It is absolutely necessary to send a signal to the world markets. One could imagine 5% to 10% more volume“. Even if it means setting aside part of the environmental objectives? “The priority is the fight against inflation (…) But that doesn’t mean going back. It is possible to produce more, better and sustainably.“