The first effects of the war in Ukraine are being felt in North Africa

The Egyptian pound fell on Monday March 21 to 18 units to the dollar, while the parity had hardly moved for two years. The reason: inflation, which has reached 10% in Egypt. The Central Bank of Cairo was forced to intervene by raising its interest rates to avoid the runaway. As for the local Ministry of Finance, it has just urgently released seven billion dollars (just over six billion euros) for support measures for the poorest.

General inflation is driven by food prices which have soared by 20% because of the war in Ukraine, and this could only be the start. In question: wheat and sunflower oil. Egypt imports 85% of its wheat and 73% of its sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia. Both products are becoming increasingly rare and are therefore increasingly expensive.

With its one hundred million inhabitants, Egypt is the most populous of the Arab countries. And wheat is one of the basic elements for food, along with bread and the traditional couscous. Moreover, and for the first time, the Egyptian authorities regulate the price of bread. All about ten days before Ramadan, which is a period of high food expenditure for households.

The phenomenon could therefore spread. We can logically think of Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, which are also big consumers of wheat for daily cooking, and also on the eve of Ramadan. Hence the fear of some experts to see, in the long term, social uprisings. Not to mention the financial question in these indebted countries: to take the single example of Egypt, the debt today represents 90% of the GDP, the national wealth.