War in Ukraine | The Russian “stalemate” raises fears of the worst

Russia could intensify its attacks against civilian targets, for lack of significant progress on the military front, while Ukraine refuses any ultimatum.

Jean-Thomas Léveillé
The Press

Russian troops made no significant progress in Ukraine on Monday despite heavy shelling of several major cities, sparking fears that Moscow’s offensive could take an even bloodier turn.

“Russian forces positioned northwest and northeast of Kyiv continue to bombard the city and reinforce their defensive positions, but have not carried out any significant offensives,” observed the 26^and day of the conflict the Institute for Study of War (ISW), based in Washington.

The powerful bombardment overnight from Sunday to Monday of a shopping center in the northwest of the capital killed eight people, according to the Ukrainian authorities, and damaged a dozen neighboring buildings.

The Russian military says arms and ammunition were stored in the mall.

A new curfew was imposed until Wednesday morning in Kyiv, and Mayor Vitali Klitschko called on residents to wear masks and not open windows to protect themselves from the smoke from the fires caused by the bombardments.

“Very violent and bloody”

With the exception of Mariupol, where Russian troops continued to shell the besieged city, described as a “major war crime” by the European Union, the invader made no advances around other major cities. Ukrainians, particularly faced with logistical problems.

This lack of progress is leading Russia into a “dead end” which could be “very violent and bloody”, warned the ISW on Sunday.

Neither an armistice nor a ceasefire, a stalemate is a situation in which each side carries out offensives which do not fundamentally change the course of the conflict, but which cause a lot of victims, recalled the ISW, citing as an example the battles of Somme and Verdun, during the First World War – in which tens of thousands of Canadian soldiers were killed.

The conflict risks “stagnation”, also believes Pierre Jolicoeur, professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, in Kingston, specialist in the former USSR, who observes that Russian troops seem for several days to be targeting cities more “to terrorize the population and bring down the resistance of the Ukrainians”.

The strategy, however, gives the opposite result, he notes, fearing a bloody spiral.

Ukraine will not accept “any ultimatum from Russia”, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with regional state media on Monday. However, he said he was ready to discuss with his Russian counterpart a “compromise” on Donbass and Crimea to “stop the war”.

Any “compromise” with Moscow on these territories or aimed at ending its military offensive will however have to be approved by the Ukrainian people in a referendum, said the president, quoted by Agence France-Presse (AFP). He also warned that Ukraine will be “destroyed” before he surrenders.

Volodymyr Zelensky thus wants to “feed the perception that this is a conflict which opposes democracy to an authoritarian Russian leader”, analyzes Pierre Jolicoeur. “These are the forces of democracy against authoritarianism,” he adds.

President Zelensky also said that countries from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) – which he did not name – want to vouch for Ukraine’s security, without integrates the organization.

This would be an acceptable compromise for Kyiv, which has taken note of the fact that NATO does not seem willing to open its doors to it, for fear of offending Russia.

Minefields and aerial incursions

Russian troops have begun laying mines in fields around Kyiv, the ISW reported on Sunday.

“Mines are usually used when there is a conflict that is going to last and we want to protect territorial gains,” explains Pierre Jolicoeur, who sees it as a sign that the Russian authorities are beginning to consider that the conflict could escalate. eternalize.

But a minefield will perpetuate insecurity for the populations well beyond the conflict, he laments.

Faced with Ukrainian resistance, Russia has stepped up its naval and air operations, including making some 300 incursions into Ukrainian airspace in 24 hours, the Pentagon said on Monday.

These outings are always brief, however, said a senior official speaking on condition of anonymity, quoted by AFP, explaining that the Ukrainian forces defended their skies “with great dexterity”.

The Pentagon also said it was unable to confirm that Russia used hypersonic missiles, as it claims, but stressed that the use of such long-range weapons on targets so close could demonstrate that it did not has more precision missiles.

Deaths, defections and conscription

Russia has lost 15,000 soldiers so far, according to the Ukrainian army, while US intelligence services put the number at 7,000, figures that cannot be independently verified.

The thesis that Russia is suffering heavy losses is, however, supported by reports of “the increasing conscription of people aged 55 to 65 and the aggressive recruitment of 18-year-old students” by Moscow, the ISW reported on Monday. .

The institute also indicated at the end of the week that the Russian forces are also facing an increase in desertions and insubordination by soldiers refusing to fight.

“It does not bode well for Vladimir Putin if there are significant defections,” says Pierre Jolicoeur, who believes that this war could end up turning against the Russian president.

“It bodes very badly for his long-term stay in power. »