Despite the ongoing shelling, talks between kyiv and Moscow have changed tone in recent hours. Russia speaks of a possible compromise, which would be the “neutrality” of Ukraine.
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Is this a new Kremlin maneuver? In any case, the discussions seem to be taking a new turn. Even if Ukraine rejects the idea of becoming a neutral country on the Swedish or Austrian model, and demands absolute security guarantees against Russia, the subject is on the table. Moscow’s demands are no longer those of the beginning of the war, when the Kremlin denied Ukraine the right to exist.
There have been signals on both sides since the resumption of negotiations by videoconference on Monday March 14. Volodymyr Zelesnky has already said he is ready to give up his country’s membership of NATO, a red line for the Russians. The question remains how to ensure Ukraine’s security outside the Atlantic Alliance.
Neutrality can be permanent or applied specifically to a conflict. In the case of Austria, this neutral status is enshrined in the Constitutional Act of 1955, as well as in international law, ie notified to other states. However, by becoming a member of the European Union 40 years later, Austria – supposed to participate in common security and defense – is no longer really neutral. As well as Sweden, officially non-aligned and neutral until 1992, which joined the European Union at the same time as Austria. The two countries are not members of NATO and have long neglected their military spending, a gap they have wanted to fill since the invasion of Ukraine.
The most plausible explanation for the Kremlin’s possible reversal is the bogging down of Russian forces on the ground. Vladimir Putin is aware of this, and he tried to justify himself this afternoon on television by assuring that the military operation in Ukraine is a success. What all the experts contradict, since the progression of the Russian troops is slow with high losses in men and material.
Faced with the international bronca, the Russian president even feels obliged to launch new accusations against Ukraine, which according to him was preparing an attack targeting Crimea and Donbass. Negotiations are therefore useful to the Kremlin, which is trying to get out of the Ukrainian quagmire. Unless Moscow is just hoping to buy time to reorganize its invasion. Russia is increasingly isolated in the world. The International Court of Justice has just ordered the Kremlin to suspend its attack, a purely symbolic decision but pronounced by the highest court of the United Nations.