The stated objective is to “deal another mighty blow” financing the war against Ukraine. US President Joe Biden decided on Tuesday ban imports of Russian oil, a valuable source of income for the head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin. For the time being, the Europeans, more dependent on Russian hydrocarbon deliveries, have not followed suit. How to reduce this dependence in the short term and limit the effects of such a decision on the purchasing power of populations? The EU is looking for alternatives but the member states, which meet in Versailles on Thursday and Friday, are struggling to agree, the countries’ dependence on Russian petroleum products being, as for natural gas, very variable.
A variable dependence on Russian hydrocarbons in the EU
Imports of russian oil cover 8% of the needs of Americans, against approximately 25% of those of Europeans. An average that covers different realities : if some countries, such as Slovakia (78.4%), Lithuania (68.8%) or Poland (67.5%) are more than 60% dependent on Russian oil, others are image of France (13.3%), Italy (12.5%), Spain (5.6%) or Portugal (4%) are less constrained.
Russia also provides 40 to 45% of European gas, 55% for Germany, 77% for Bulgaria and even 100% for the Czech Republic. But other European countries, including France, have further diversified their sources of supply. Russian gas represents only 16.8% of gas imports in France, 10.4% in Spain and no more than 9.7% in Portugal.
An embargo too dangerous for some Member States
To reduce dependence on Russian hydrocarbons without endangering the economy of the most exposed countries, the European Commission has dismissed the idea of an embargo and proposed Tuesday to the 27 Member States a plan, called “REPowerEU”, inviting them to multiply their sources of supplyat inflate stocks and reduce energy consumption. Stated objective: to achieve, as of this year, a two-thirds reduction in gas purchases from Russia.
In concrete terms, the Commission recommends making greater use to hydrogen and biomethane, discuss with the main hydrocarbon-producing countries, Norway, the United States, Qatar and Algeria, and coordinate the use of terminals and gas pipelines in Europe. The continent has the capacity to import an additional 50 billion m3 of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year. The European executive also wants to organize group gas purchases and relies on everyone’s efforts to make industry and buildings more energy efficient (insulation, heating methods, electrification, etc.). The European Commission believes that its proposals could enable the EU to do without Russian gas completely “well before 2030”.
Cautious optimism
Still it is necessary that the production follow and that the infrastructure exists. Norway, second gas supplier to the European Union behind Russia, is already producing at full capacity and cannot increase its deliveries, repeated its Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre on Tuesday during a joint press conference with the Polish Prime Minister. Mateusz Morawiecki visiting Oslo.
Another option: import liquefied natural gas (LNG) by cargo ship from the United States or Qatar. But the stocks are not unlimited and this requires having LNG terminals to regasify it. France has four, Germany none for the time being.
Economist specializing in energy issues and director of the chair of economics and climate at the University of Paris Dauphine, Anna Creti judges the roadmap of the European Commission “optimistic”. “Today we are faced with a contradiction that is not new”, she explained on franceinfo. “We realize under the blows of these conflicts of structural phenomena which have characterized the European economy for more than 80 years and which should have been called into question already a long time ago. I am a little pessimistic on the fact that we manage to keep this roadmap, even admitting that it has the consensus of European countries in eight months, whereas we have made much less ambitious objectives for ten years.
Less dependent on Moscow, France however refuses to go it alone. “Over the past two weeks, European coordination has been very close, swift and historical unit“, greeted Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday, calling to continue in this direction.
Accelerating the energy transition
The energy shock caused by the war in Ukraine is an opportunity to accelerate the energy transition finally point out several specialists. “Whether for the climate or for Russia, there is a strong interest in changing our habits. To heat less intensely, to be more sober and efficient in our uses”, considers for example Nicolas Goldberg, energy expert at Colombus Consulting interviewed by franceinfo. Lowering the heating by one degree would save the equivalent of 12-15 LNG ships each year in France, recalled the boss of the French energy company Engie, Catherine MacGregor.
For economist Laurence Tubiana, linchpin of the Paris climate agreement, the European summit taking place this weekend in Versailles will be “crucial”. “It is up to the Heads of State to come up with an appropriate response and to define a political course”, she told AFP.