The European Union thinks it is possible to cut its imports of Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of the year, according to a draft plan presented on Tuesday. The strategy aims to develop new sources of supply. At the same time, the European Commission is calling for a switch to renewable energies “without further delay”.
“Europe has enough gas for the last weeks of winter, but we need to urgently replenish our reserves for next year,” said Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson.
The European Commission therefore intends to impose the 90% filling of underground natural gas reservoirs by 1er October of each year, ahead of the cold season. Talks are also underway with other producing countries to import the resource in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and by pipeline.
Russia, an oil and gas giant, feeds Europe’s appetite for hydrocarbons. The economic sanctions of the member countries of the European Union (EU) against Moscow, which are very harsh, nevertheless spare the fossil sector, given its capital importance for the energy supply of Europe. For its part, Washington decided to ban imports of Russian gas and oil on Tuesday.
As a result, euros continue to flow into Russian coffers. Europe’s energy dependence thus contributes to the “Kremlin’s war chest”, acknowledged Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, last week.
“Man-made climate change and the war in Ukraine have the same roots: fossil fuels, and our dependence on them,” climatologist Svitlana Krakovska said at the end of February at a meeting of the IPCC, the eve of the publication of its last report.
How quickly can the Old Continent accelerate its shift towards renewable energies?
In its draft plan presented on Tuesday, the EU proposes to increase the volumes of production and imports of biomethane and hydrogen. It also mentions the need to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels in homes, industry and the electricity system. Energy efficiency and the fight against “bottlenecks” in energy infrastructure are also on the menu.
“Putin’s war in Ukraine demonstrates the urgency of accelerating our transition to clean energy,” said Frans Timmermans, Executive Vice President for the European Green Deal, on the sidelines of the announcement.
The Carbon Tracker think tank, in favor of accelerated decarbonisation, pointed out last week that the solar and wind energy currently produced in Europe is cheaper than that drawn from natural gas.
“It is policy and regulation, not economic or technological factors, that remain the main barriers” slowing investment in renewable energy, argued Carbon Tracker.
Already, from 2019 to 2021, renewable energies are gaining ground in Europe in the production of electricity (+44 terawatts per hour (TWh) per year) at the expense of natural gas, which is losing (-23 TWh per year), according to a February report by UK think tank Ember. Changes can be rapid: for just two years, Spain and the Netherlands have been burning about 20% less fossil gas to produce their electricity.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) for its part set out last week ten recommendations to reduce the EU’s “dependence” on Russian natural gas. Accelerating the deployment of new solar and wind projects, diversifying gas sources, maximizing nuclear energy production and improving energy efficiency are among them.
In terms of renewable energies, the IEA notably recommends that leaders issue permits more quickly to promoters preparing major projects. At the residential level, she estimates that a program subsidizing 20% of the cost of installing solar panels would make it possible to double investments in the sector in the short term.
Another solution was part of the package proposed by the IEA to reduce Europe’s natural gas needs from next winter: heat pumps. More energy efficient than electric baseboard heaters, they can replace natural gas or oil-fired furnaces.
Already, heat pumps are in vogue in Europe. Last year, two million units were sold – a growth of more than 25% compared to 2020. In Germany (28% growth) and Poland (60%), new rules restricting the use of fossil fuels for home heating have spurred the craze for heat pumps.
As proposed on Tuesday by the European Commission, the economic think tank Bruegel also believes that Europe must urgently store natural gas. Its analysts estimate that the EU could completely do without Russian natural gas by next winter “without economic activity being devastated, people freezing or electricity distribution being disrupted”.